Chevron: Capital Discipline and Cash-Flow Growth Underpin Long-Term Buy Thesis

Neil Mehta, an analyst from Goldman Sachs, maintained the Buy rating on Chevron. The associated price target was lowered to $174.00.

Neil Mehta has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that, in his view, support attractive long‑term value creation at Chevron. Management is projecting double‑digit annual growth in adjusted free cash flow through 2030 at a conservative oil price assumption, driven largely by core upstream positions in the Permian, Kazakhstan, the Gulf of Mexico and Guyana. The faster-than-expected progress at the Tengiz FGP project, together with potential upside from further de‑bottlenecking and improving lease terms in Kazakhstan, underpins confidence in volume and cash flow visibility. In the Permian, Chevron is repositioning the asset from a pure growth engine to a durable cash generator, leveraging enhanced recovery techniques and digital technologies to sustain output while lowering costs.
Capital allocation discipline also plays a central role in Mehta’s positive stance. Chevron has trimmed its long-term capex range while simultaneously increasing its structural cost‑reduction targets, which should enhance capital efficiency and resilience across cycles. The company’s plan to return substantial cash to shareholders through sizeable, ongoing share buybacks, alongside a diversified mix of short- and long-cycle projects, suggests an attractive balance between reinvestment and distributions. Taken together, these elements support Mehta’s view that Chevron is well positioned to deliver robust free cash flow growth, competitive shareholder returns, and operational resilience, justifying his Buy recommendation on the stock.

In another report released today, Piper Sandler also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $174.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 60 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of CVX in relation to earlier this year.