Cautious Outlook on nCino: Hold Rating Amid Conservative Revenue Forecasts and Growth Contingencies

Analyst Michael Infante of Morgan Stanley maintained a Hold rating on nCino (NCNO – Research Report), boosting the price target to $29.00.

Michael Infante’s rating is based on a combination of factors influencing nCino’s financial outlook. The company has maintained its full-year Annual Contract Value (ACV) target, reflecting an 8-9% year-over-year increase, which aligns with seasonal expectations. However, the revenue forecast for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 appears conservative, as it suggests a sequential decline, marking a departure from the company’s historical trend of slight sequential increases.
Despite stable to positive deal commentary and improved implementation timelines, which have led to higher adjusted EBITDA projections for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, Infante believes that a re-rating of the stock is contingent upon significant growth in subscription revenue. While there is optimism about potential revenue acceleration in fiscal year 2027, the cautious outlook and recent operational expense actions suggest a preference for a conservative approach, resulting in a Hold rating.

In another report released today, Bank of America Securities also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $30.00 price target.