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Cautious Outlook on Columbia Sportswear: Hold Rating Amid Sales Weakness and Rising Costs

Cautious Outlook on Columbia Sportswear: Hold Rating Amid Sales Weakness and Rising Costs

TD Cowen analyst John Kernan has reiterated their neutral stance on COLM stock, giving a Hold rating today.

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John Kernan has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that suggest caution regarding Columbia Sportswear’s future performance. The company’s sales outlook for the fourth quarter is below consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness extending into the first half of 2026. This is compounded by cautious behavior from wholesale partners in the U.S. and lukewarm demand in Columbia’s direct-to-consumer segment. Additionally, the company faces significant headwinds from increased SG&A expenses and the impact of higher tariffs.
Furthermore, the third quarter revenue was artificially boosted by early wholesale shipments, which will negatively affect fourth-quarter sales estimates. The gross margin has been pressured by incremental tariffs and unfavorable foreign exchange rates, while SG&A expenses have increased due to higher spending on demand creation and omni-channel initiatives. Looking ahead, Kernan anticipates continued SG&A deleverage in the fourth quarter, with EBIT margins expected to be near the high end of guidance. Overall, these factors contribute to a cautious outlook, justifying the Hold rating.

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