William Blair analyst Ryan Merkel has maintained their neutral stance on HLMN stock, giving a Hold rating today.
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Ryan Merkel has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors influencing Hillman Solutions’ current market position. The company has shown impressive performance early in the tariff cycle, with shares rising by 16% following a beat-and-raise driven by growth in the HPS segment. However, Merkel expresses caution as the biggest risks are yet to come, particularly concerning the impact of higher prices on demand and the pressure on gross margins. The uncertainty surrounding where gross margins will stabilize and how volumes will hold up is a key concern.
Management’s initial outlook for 2026 suggests a modest growth trajectory with a 10% price increase and low- to mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, assuming flat market volumes. This implies a 100 basis points compression in EBITDA margin, which, while better than feared, still presents a challenge. Despite Hillman’s solid execution and the potential for upside if volumes remain steady, Merkel advises investors to remain cautious until more clarity on tariffs and their impact emerges.
In another report released today, TR | OpenAI – 4o also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $9.00 price target.