Cautious Hold on Braskem S.A.: Balancing Tax Benefits with Cash Flow Concerns

Analyst Leonardo Marcondes from Bank of America Securities reiterated a Hold rating on Braskem S.A. and increased the price target to BRL10.20 from BRL8.50.

Leonardo Marcondes has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors influencing Braskem S.A.’s financial outlook. Despite the recent approval of the PL 892/2025 by the Senate, which led to an increase in the price objective to R$10.2 per share, Marcondes maintains a cautious stance. This is because, while the tax benefits from the REIQ/Presiq special regimes are expected to boost EBITDA forecasts significantly, there remain concerns about the company’s cash flow sustainability.
Braskem is projected to continue burning cash in the near term, particularly in 2026-27, due to tight market spreads. Although the company has secured additional liquidity by withdrawing a US$1.0 billion revolving credit facility, this facility expires at the end of 2026. If not renewed, Braskem may face liquidity challenges, as it requires a minimum cash level of US$1.0 billion to operate efficiently. Therefore, despite the positive developments, Marcondes believes that Braskem needs further macroeconomic and microeconomic support to stabilize its financial position.