CareDx: Solid Near-Term Beat but LCD Overhang and Reimbursement Uncertainty Justify Hold Rating

William Blair analyst Andrew Brackmann has maintained their neutral stance on CDNA stock, giving a Hold rating on January 6.

Andrew Brackmann has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to both recent performance and forward-looking uncertainties. He acknowledges that CareDx’s preliminary fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations across key revenue lines, with stronger-than-anticipated test volumes and meaningful contributions from revenue cycle management initiatives and prior-period collections. The company also delivered better-than-expected growth in its product and patient/digital solutions businesses, which, along with a completed share repurchase, supports a more constructive near-term trading outlook for the stock. However, Brackmann notes that some of the upside reflects collections from prior periods and improved blended pricing, which may not be fully repeatable, and he is seeking further detail from management on the durability of these trends.

At the same time, his rating reflects material uncertainties that temper enthusiasm despite the solid quarter. Brackmann highlights that the investment case into 2026 hinges on execution in areas such as deeper electronic medical record integration, continued progress in revenue cycle management, and sustaining average selling prices. Most importantly, he points to the pending local coverage determination (LCD) update as a significant overhang, with key reimbursement clarity not expected until the first half of 2026. Until there is better visibility on the outcome and impact of this coverage decision—alongside ongoing risks from reimbursement pressures, competitive dynamics, and an unproven pipeline—he views a more neutral, Hold (Market Perform) stance as appropriate rather than turning decisively positive on the shares.

In another report released on January 6, Craig-Hallum also downgraded the stock to a Hold with a $26.00 price target.