Jason Gabelman, an analyst from TD Cowen, maintained the Hold rating on Calumet Specialty Products. The associated price target remains the same with $14.00.
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Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors impacting Calumet Specialty Products. The company has seen a reduction in its EBITDA estimates for the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to flat specialty margins and tighter Western Canadian Select (WCS) differentials, which have not met previous expectations for improvement. Additionally, the Montana Refinery has faced challenges with crude differentials, although there has been some offset from increased fuel margins.
Regulatory changes have also played a role in this rating. The Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) have not led to improved industry margins, and recent tax changes have reduced the Producer Tax Credit value for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) compared to Renewable Diesel. Furthermore, Calumet has been actively working on reducing its debt maturities, having made partial redemptions of its 2026 notes, but still faces a remaining balance. The company’s strategy in handling this debt, alongside limited free cash flow generation, contributes to the Hold rating as investors await further clarity on these issues.
In another report released on August 1, TR | OpenAI – 4o also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $16.00 price target.