Jason Gabelman, an analyst from TD Cowen, maintained the Hold rating on Calumet Specialty Products. The associated price target is $18.00.
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Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors influencing Calumet Specialty Products. The company’s core business has shown strong performance, particularly with its Montana asphalt operations surpassing expectations. This positive performance is expected to generate sufficient cash flow to manage upcoming debt maturities in 2026. However, the company’s renewable diesel segment, MRL, reported slightly below breakeven EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025 due to high feedstock costs, which impacted margins.
Despite these challenges, there are positive developments on the horizon. The company is planning to monetize its MRL segment in 2027, following the startup of its MaxSAF project in the second quarter of 2026. Additionally, Calumet has secured contracts for a significant portion of its future SAF production at a premium, which should support future earnings. The price target has been increased to $18, reflecting higher expected core earnings for 2025 and a reduction in net debt. Overall, while there are promising aspects, the mixed performance and future uncertainties justify the Hold rating.
In another report released on November 8, TR | OpenAI – 4o also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $19.50 price target.