Boot Barn: Above-Consensus Growth Outlook Driven by Same-Store Sales Momentum and Structural Demand Tailwinds

J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew Boss has maintained their bullish stance on BOOT stock, giving a Buy rating today.

Matthew Boss has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that point to both near-term upside and strong long-term growth potential. He highlights that Boot Barn’s recent and expected same-store sales performance is running ahead of prior guidance, with management’s current outlook incorporating a conservative macro “haircut” that he believes is likely to be removed as updated guidance is issued. He also notes that traffic and pricing trends, including higher average unit retails and accelerating transactions, support a stronger same-store sales trajectory than what is currently embedded in management’s formal targets. In addition, early-quarter trading updates suggest momentum has continued to improve after the holiday period, reinforcing confidence in the sales outlook.
Boss further emphasizes Boot Barn’s advantaged strategic positioning as the leading player in a large, fragmented western and work wear market, with a differentiated, destination-style store base and a high mix of full-price selling that supports solid merchandise margins. He expects ongoing square footage growth and disciplined cost leverage to drive operating margin expansion and sustain a 20%+ earnings growth profile over time. He also cites structural demand tailwinds such as casualization trends, market share gains, and recovery in categories linked to oil, gas, and Western events. Based on these dynamics, his earnings forecasts sit above consensus and, when combined with his valuation framework, support his Overweight (Buy) rating on the stock.

In another report released today, Piper Sandler also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $229.00 price target.