B&M: Guidance Downgrade Tempers Early Operational Improvements, Justifying a Neutral Hold Stance

Jefferies analyst Andrew Wade downgraded the rating on B&M European Value Retail SA to a Hold today, setting a price target of p175.00.

Andrew Wade has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to B&M’s recent trading performance and outlook. The company’s like‑for‑like sales in the UK turned slightly negative in the second half, and although December and early January showed a healthier rebound, this has not fully offset wider pressures. To clear excess stock, B&M must discount more heavily than planned, and together with additional price investments and weak trading at Heron, this has led management to cut its FY26 adjusted EBITDA and profit-before-tax guidance by a meaningful margin. Management remains confident that actions around assortment simplification, better availability, and sharper pricing can re‑ignite steady like‑for‑like growth over the next 12–18 months, but this turnaround will take time to prove.

Andrew Wade’s stance reflects a balance between disappointment in another guidance downgrade and cautious optimism about the initiatives underway. The negative revision to earnings expectations, particularly the mid‑point reduction in EBITDA and the larger hit to PBT, constrains the near‑term investment case. At the same time, the improving sales trajectory into the key Christmas period and early new year provides some reassurance that operational changes are starting to gain traction. Overall, the combination of reduced guidance, execution risk around the strategic plan, and early but not yet decisive signs of improvement leads him to stay neutral, neither recommending investors buy aggressively nor exit the stock, hence the Hold rating.

According to TipRanks, Wade is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 5.5% and a 53.49% success rate. Wade covers the Consumer Cyclical sector, focusing on stocks such as Games Workshop, Pets at Home, and AO World.

In another report released today, TipRanks – OpenAI also downgraded the stock to a Hold with a p187.00 price target.