Birkenstock: Solid Underlying Demand Offset by Weak Guidance Visibility and FX Headwinds, Justifying a Hold Rating

Analyst Sam Poser from Williams Trading maintained a Hold rating on Birkenstock Holding plc and decreased the price target to $49.00 from $51.00.

Sam Poser has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Birkenstock’s guidance quality and earnings visibility. While underlying consumer demand for the brand appears solid, he is uneasy with management’s recurring reluctance to offer clear, specific short‑term revenue ranges, even late in the quarter. This lack of precision around sales trends, particularly for 1Q26, has forced him to scale back his near‑term earnings projections to better match more modest FX‑neutral growth expectations. Reflecting these reduced estimates and the communication issues, he also slightly lowered his price target from $51 to $49, indicating limited upside from current levels.
Poser further notes that currency effects will materially dampen reported revenue growth relative to FX‑neutral performance in the near term, adding another layer of complexity for investors trying to model the business. He believes that timely, detailed disclosure of preliminary 1Q26 results—ideally around the ICR Conference—would help, but any delay until the investor day later in January risks keeping the market focused on short‑term uncertainty. Taken together, robust brand demand is offset by weaker guidance practices and FX headwinds, leaving the risk‑reward profile balanced rather than compelling. These considerations underpin his decision to maintain a Hold rating on Birkenstock shares.

Poser covers the Consumer Cyclical sector, focusing on stocks such as Crocs, Wolverine World Wide, and Deckers Outdoor. According to TipRanks, Poser has an average return of 16.4% and a 51.01% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released on December 29, Bernstein also assigned a Hold rating to the stock with a $55.00 price target.