Biogen: Balanced Risk/Reward Amid Alzheimer’s and Autoimmune Pipeline Uncertainty Supports Hold Rating

In a report released today, Michael Yee from UBS maintained a Hold rating on Biogen, with a price target of $185.00.

Michael Yee has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Biogen’s current valuation, pipeline visibility, and timing of key catalysts. He notes that the stock has already appreciated significantly in the second half of 2025, leaving the current price roughly in line with his assessment of risk and reward. While he sees meaningful potential in Biogen’s Alzheimer’s franchise, including Leqembi and the preclinical AHEAD 3-45 study, the outlook is clouded by uncertainty around the timing and outcome of Eli Lilly’s TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 3 trial, which is a major read-through for Biogen but may not deliver data until 2026. He also points out that Leqembi’s growth is likely to be gradual due to delayed Medicare reimbursement for subcutaneous formulations, questions about adoption of new diagnostic tools, and ongoing safety and benefit-risk considerations.

On the autoimmune side, Yee views the late-stage lupus program for litifilimab as promising, assigning a better-than-even chance of success, but emphasizes that pivotal data will not be available until late 2026, limiting near-term impact on the stock. He flags that a substantial portion of Biogen’s current profitability comes from Ocrevus royalties, which face biosimilar competition by 2029, making long-term earnings more dependent on pipeline execution. In his view, Biogen’s shares are currently pricing in both the existing business and a portion of the pipeline, with downside risk if upcoming Alzheimer’s and lupus data disappoint, but also upside if those programs overdeliver. Balancing these opposing scenarios, and given the long lead times before the most important data readouts, he concludes that a Hold rating with a $185 price target appropriately reflects a fairly balanced risk/reward profile at this stage.

In another report released today, Citi also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $180.00 price target.