Balancing Record Output with Weaker Outlook and LNG Price Risks: Maintaining Hold on Woodside

Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge has maintained their neutral stance on WDS stock, giving a Hold rating on January 18.

Neil Beveridge has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that balance operational strengths with emerging risks. On the positive side, Woodside delivered record 2025 output that exceeded both his and the market’s expectations, while reported revenues were broadly aligned with forecasts. The company’s major growth projects, including Scarborough, Trion and Louisiana LNG, are progressing according to plan, and 2026 capital expenditure guidance came in lower than anticipated, which should support capital discipline.

At the same time, Beveridge highlights that the company’s 2026 production outlook is meaningfully weaker than he and consensus had projected, largely due to turnaround activity and field decline, and potentially a cautious stance on Scarborough ramp-up. He also flags execution and cost risks, noting that elevated inflation could still pressure project timelines and budgets despite the lower capex guidance. Strategically, he remains wary of Woodside’s sizable exposure to spot LNG prices at a time when he sees downside risk for that market, especially relative to peers with more oil-linked pricing and stronger near- to medium-term volume and cash flow growth. Governance uncertainty around the CEO transition adds another element of caution, leading him to maintain a neutral stance and leave his AUD 24.0 price target unchanged.

Beveridge covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as Woodside Energy Group, PetroChina Company, and China Petroleum & Chemical. According to TipRanks, Beveridge has an average return of 6.2% and a 51.58% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released on January 18, Macquarie also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a A$25.00 price target.