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Balanced View on BioMarin: Solid Near-Term Guidance Offset by Voxzogo Competitive Risks and Roctavian Challenges, Supporting a Hold Rating

Balanced View on BioMarin: Solid Near-Term Guidance Offset by Voxzogo Competitive Risks and Roctavian Challenges, Supporting a Hold Rating

William Blair analyst Sami Corwin has maintained their neutral stance on BMRN stock, giving a Hold rating on January 8.

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Sami Corwin has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to BioMarin’s current performance and future competitive risks. Preliminary 2025 revenue guidance appears solid and roughly in line with market expectations, with Voxzogo showing renewed momentum and strong global demand. However, Corwin sees meaningful overhang from upcoming data and regulatory decisions on rival achondroplasia therapies, which could materially pressure Voxzogo’s sales trajectory from 2026 onward. In addition, the anticipated Roctavian asset impairment, while largely non-cash, highlights the ongoing challenges in optimizing the company’s gene therapy portfolio and limits near-term earnings upside.

At the same time, Corwin acknowledges positives that help support the stock at current levels but are not sufficient to justify a more constructive rating. The Amicus acquisition is viewed as strategically sound and incrementally diversifying to BioMarin’s revenue base, but he believes further business development will still be required to fully counteract prospective Voxzogo headwinds. Earnings guidance, excluding the Roctavian write-down, remains stable, suggesting operational discipline yet limited scope for significant beats in the near term. Taken together, these elements lead Corwin to a balanced view in which the risks and opportunities are relatively well reflected in the current share price, supporting a Hold recommendation rather than a Buy or Sell.

According to TipRanks, Corwin is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 13.0% and a 49.62% success rate. Corwin covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc., Neurogene, and BioMarin Pharmaceutical.

In another report released on January 8, RBC Capital also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $66.00 price target.

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