Balanced Risk/Reward Keeps NextEra Energy at Hold Amid Underappreciated Data Center Upside and Limited Near-Term Catalysts

Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin Smith has maintained their neutral stance on NEE stock, giving a Hold rating on January 4.

Julien Dumoulin Smith has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to both earnings visibility and valuation. He remains confident that NextEra Energy can sustain more than 8% EPS growth, supported by Florida Power & Light’s rate framework and ongoing renewables and storage deployment, but he modestly reduced his long‑term growth assumptions to reflect a slower ramp in gas-fired generation. While he views the emerging data center opportunity and the Google partnership as strategically attractive and underappreciated by the market, he notes that much of the 15 GW data center plan is still largely uncontracted “white space,” limiting the extent to which these prospects can be capitalized into near-term earnings.

At the same time, he sees the downside in the shares as relatively contained, with management expressing strong confidence in hitting key milestones in 2026 and regulatory stability supporting the base business. However, he believes the stock is likely to trade at only a modest premium to peers and does not currently see a strong catalyst for a substantial rerating without clearer proof that contracted gas and data center-driven growth can compound earnings beyond 2030. As a result, he trims his price target slightly and concludes that the risk/reward profile is balanced, supporting a Hold rather than a more aggressive recommendation.

In another report released on January 4, TipRanks – xAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $88.00 price target.