Balanced Risk-Reward for Incyte as Monjuvi’s Frontline DLBCL Win Offers Modest Upside in a Crowded Market

William Blair analyst Matt Phipps has maintained their neutral stance on INCY stock, giving a Hold rating on December 24.

Matt Phipps has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to both the opportunity and the constraints around Incyte’s Monjuvi franchise. He acknowledges that the frontMIND Phase III trial in frontline DLBCL achieved its main and key secondary goals, showing a statistically meaningful improvement in progression-free and event-free survival without introducing new safety issues, which supports a label expansion and incremental revenue potential. At the same time, he characterizes the commercial upside as likely limited rather than transformative, viewing this as a meaningful but modest broadening of Monjuvi’s use beyond its current settings in relapsed/refractory DLBCL and follicular lymphoma.

Phipps tempers enthusiasm based on the increasingly crowded frontline DLBCL market, where multiple R-CHOP–based combinations are already approved or advancing in late-stage trials, including high-profile competitors such as Epkinly with a pivotal readout expected in 2026. He suggests that while Monjuvi could carve out a niche, particularly in community practices or for patients where tolerability and administration convenience are prioritized over more intensive regimens like Polivy- or Epkinly-based options, its market share may be capped by this intense competition. Given this balance of positive clinical data but constrained competitive positioning and market-share potential, he concludes that risk and reward for Incyte shares are roughly balanced at current levels, supporting a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating.

According to TipRanks, Phipps is a 4-star analyst with an average return of 5.9% and a 50.00% success rate. Phipps covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Incyte, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Genmab.

In another report released on December 24, Truist Financial also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $103.00 price target.