Balanced Quarter Keeps Valuation Fair; Limited Near-Term Upside Supports Hold Rating

TD Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch maintained a Hold rating on American Express today and set a price target of $375.00.

Moshe Orenbuch has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that leave the overall investment case balanced rather than compellingly positive or negative. Fourth-quarter earnings per share were essentially in line with both his forecast and the broader market’s expectations, with stronger revenue driven by higher service fees and lower-than-anticipated credit provisions and tax rate. However, these positives were countered by operating expenses running above projections, largely because of elevated cardmember service costs tied to the U.S. Platinum refresh and higher compensation expenses. In addition, while billed business trends remained healthy, there were signs of slight deceleration in U.S. small and mid-sized enterprise volumes after a strong prior quarter.

Orenbuch also points to 2026 guidance that roughly matches his prior framework, with revenue guidance modestly below his estimate at the midpoint but earnings guidance modestly above, suggesting limited near-term upside surprise. Management’s continued emphasis on investing in the franchise—especially marketing around the U.S. Platinum product—supports growth but keeps spending elevated, even as customer expenses are expected to ease as fee increases take hold. He acknowledges the company’s ability to optimize acquisition costs and maintain solid momentum in billed business, yet the quarter is characterized as neutral overall, without a clear catalyst for multiple expansion. Reflecting this balance of offsetting positives and pressures, he maintains his price target and views the stock as fairly valued at current levels, justifying a Hold recommendation rather than a more decisive buy or sell stance.

Orenbuch covers the Financial sector, focusing on stocks such as OneMain Holdings, SLM, and Capital One Financial. According to TipRanks, Orenbuch has an average return of 23.9% and a 69.46% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released today, TipRanks – xAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $382.00 price target.