Balanced Near-Term Upside but Limited Long-Term Re-Rating: Maintaining Hold on Church & Dwight

Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian has maintained their neutral stance on CHD stock, giving a Hold rating today.

Dara Mohsenian has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that balance near-term positives with more tempered longer-term expectations. Church & Dwight delivered fourth-quarter earnings per share above consensus, helped by stronger gross margins and a favorable tax rate, even though overall sales only slightly exceeded market expectations. Organic sales growth came in below forecasts, with weaker-than-anticipated performance in both the U.S. and international consumer segments, partly offset by better pricing/mix and solid results in the specialty segment. In addition, higher marketing and SG&A spending weighed on operating leverage, limiting the upside from the gross margin beat.

Looking ahead, the company’s initial 2026 organic sales and EPS outlook generally aligns with current consensus and its own long-term targets, suggesting limited scope for material estimate revisions. Management’s newly outlined growth initiatives—expanding ARM & HAMMER, scaling THERABREATH in oral care, and pursuing international expansion via acquisitions—offer potential upside, but these plans remain in early stages and will take time to fully materialize. With the stock already discounting some of these improvements and only modest upside implied, Mohsenian views the risk/reward profile as balanced rather than compelling. As a result, he maintains a neutral, or Hold, stance on Church & Dwight shares.

In another report released today, TipRanks – xAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $105.00 price target.

CHD’s price has also changed slightly for the past six months – from $95.950 to $96.250, which is a 0.31% increase.