ASML: Robust Order Momentum, Upbeat 2026 Outlook and New €12bn Buyback Underpin Buy Rating

Bank of America Securities analyst Didier Scemama reiterated a Buy rating on ASML Holding NV today and set a price target of €1,454.00.

Didier Scemama has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to ASML’s strong operational performance and forward outlook. The company delivered fourth-quarter revenue and gross margin slightly ahead of market expectations and, more importantly, reported an exceptionally strong order intake, with bookings far surpassing consensus and driving a substantial backlog, particularly in EUV systems. Despite a small shortfall versus consensus on EBIT and EPS, free cash flow was materially higher than anticipated, underlining the strength of ASML’s cash generation. Management’s guidance for the first quarter of 2026 indicates revenue and EBIT meaningfully above market forecasts, even though gross margin is guided modestly below consensus at the midpoint.
Scemama also bases his positive stance on ASML’s medium-term growth profile and capital allocation. The company projects 2026 net sales ahead of current market expectations and anticipates healthy gross margins, supported by significant growth in EUV and IBM-related business, with non-EUV segments such as DUV ex-China and metrology also contributing. While revenues from China are expected to decline as a share of the total, this is offset by robust demand from other regions and end-markets, including memory and logic customers accelerating capacity plans. Furthermore, the introduction of a new €12bn share buyback program through 2028 and visible customer progress on High-NA tools, including Intel’s acceptance of the first 5200 system, reinforce Scemama’s conviction in ASML’s long-term value creation and support his Buy rating and price objective of €1,454.

In another report released today, Morgan Stanley also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a €1,400.00 price target.