Apellis Pharmaceuticals: Empaveli Momentum, Syfovre Franchise Durability, and Multi-Indication Expansion Support Reiterated Buy and $45 Target

Analyst Douglas Tsao from H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Buy rating on Apellis Pharmaceuticals and keeping the price target at $45.00.

Douglas Tsao has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Apellis’s current performance and future growth prospects. He highlights that fourth-quarter and full-year revenues modestly exceeded expectations despite slight year-over-year declines, and emphasizes that the company’s cash position should be sufficient to carry operations through the path to profitability. He also points to the strong momentum of Empaveli, noting robust demand in C3G and IC-MPGN, higher-than-anticipated patient starts, and broad payer coverage, all of which support the view that Empaveli can become a standard therapy in these indications. In addition, a potential milestone payment from European approval and the launch of pivotal trials in new kidney indications (FSGS and DGF) are seen as incremental value drivers.

Tsao acknowledges that growth in the geographic atrophy segment for Syfovre has been measured, but views the increasing proportion of paid doses and the product’s substantial market share as constructive signs. He expects upcoming catalysts—such as a pre-filled syringe submission, introduction of an AI-based OCT imaging tool to support diagnosis and monitoring, and a next-generation combination regimen with APL-3007—to help expand adoption and reinforce the franchise over time. His valuation is anchored in a discounted, risk-adjusted revenue outlook through 2035 across multiple indications for Empaveli and Syfovre, which supports the $45 price target. While he notes execution, regulatory, competitive, and profitability risks, he concludes that the risk-reward profile remains attractive at current levels, justifying the reiterated Buy rating.