Antofagasta: High-Quality Chilean Copper Growth Story Supports Buy Rating and 20% Upside

Goldman Sachs analyst Matt Greene upgraded the rating on Antofagasta to a Buy today, setting a price target of p4,000.00.

Matt Greene has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Antofagasta’s growth profile and asset quality. He emphasizes that the company’s core Chilean operations, particularly Centinela and Pelambres, underpin the bulk of current production and are expected to generate nearly all incremental volumes over the coming decade. The planned expansion at Centinela, including the second concentrator now being built and the potential follow-on Phase 2, is seen as a credible route to achieving more than 30% production growth by 2030, with attractive capital efficiency and strong projected returns. In his view, the company’s existing permits, water solutions, and continuity of its workforce help limit execution risks around this growth agenda, even though delays could expose it to a tighter and more competitive labour market.

Matt Greene’s rating is based on a constructive view of the copper price environment in the near term, which he believes will be supported by speculative demand and constrained inventories outside the US, even if price swings are likely around policy decisions. On his updated forecasts, Antofagasta’s valuation remains reasonable relative to its net asset value and earnings, with trading multiples that leave room for upside. He highlights the company’s high-margin asset base, its strong organic expansion pipeline and its status as a relatively scarce, pure copper-gold producer operating in a comparatively stable jurisdiction. Taken together, these factors support a 12‑month price target that suggests roughly 20% potential share price appreciation, justifying his upgrade of the stock to a Buy recommendation.

In another report released yesterday, J.P. Morgan also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a p4,000.00 price target.