In a report released yesterday, Jason Gerberry from Bank of America Securities maintained a Hold rating on Alkermes, with a price target of $35.00.
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Jason Gerberry has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to the competitive landscape and upcoming data releases. The recent positive results from Takeda’s Phase 3 trial in narcolepsy type-1 (NT1) set a high competitive bar for Alkermes, as Takeda’s orexin-receptor 2 agonist demonstrated clinically meaningful efficacy and was well tolerated. This raises expectations for Alkermes’ upcoming Phase 2 data, which will be crucial in determining its ability to differentiate its product in the NT1 market.
Gerberry notes that while Takeda’s detailed Phase 3 data is not yet available, the focus will be on how Alkermes’ efficacy and safety measures compare to Takeda’s previous Phase 2 results. The market impact for Alkermes is expected to be more significant in the fall, with the release of detailed data from both Takeda and Alkermes’ own Phase 2 topline results in the riskier narcolepsy type-2 (NT2) category. Given that success in NT1 seems to be priced in, the potential upside for Alkermes is closely tied to its performance in NT2.
ALKS’s price has also changed slightly for the past six months – from $28.500 to $29.690, which is a 4.18% increase.