Akebia Therapeutics: Advancing Praliciguat in FSGS and Vafseo Commercial Ramp Support Compelling Buy Thesis

Julian Harrison, an analyst from BTIG, maintained the Buy rating on Akebia Therapeutics. The associated price target remains the same with $5.00.

Julian Harrison has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Akebia’s advancing renal pipeline and upcoming commercial inflection. He views the initiation of the Phase 2 study of praliciguat in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) as a meaningful step, highlighting that the drug’s mechanism as an sGC stimulator is well aligned with the biology of chronic kidney disease and supported by prior safety data in multiple patient populations. The prior signal of reduced albuminuria in diabetic kidney disease, even without meeting the primary endpoint, is seen as supportive of potential activity in FSGS and helps mitigate development risk. With roughly 40,000 FSGS patients in the US and no therapies specifically approved for this indication, he believes praliciguat targets a sizable, underserved market where a differentiated mechanism could be particularly valuable.

In the near term, Harrison’s positive stance is further supported by expectations for Vafseo’s commercial ramp, with a significant expansion in the accessible patient pool anticipated around late 2025 to early 2026. This projected step-up in Vafseo uptake, combined with the optionality from praliciguat’s progress in a rare renal indication, underpins his view that Akebia’s risk‑reward profile is attractive at current levels. He incorporates these drivers into a sum-of-the-parts, net present value framework using a relatively conservative discount rate and terminal growth assumption, and still sees upside to the stock. Together, the advancing clinical program, clear unmet need in FSGS, and approaching revenue acceleration from Vafseo justify his Buy recommendation on Akebia Therapeutics.