Air Lease: Solid Fundamentals and Visible Growth Offset by Takeout-Valuation Ceiling, Justifying Hold Rating

Analyst Moshe Orenbuch of TD Cowen maintained a Hold rating on Air Lease, retaining the price target of $65.00.

Moshe Orenbuch has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors that balance Air Lease’s solid near-term performance with a valuation already reflecting much of the upside. He highlights that fourth-quarter aircraft deliveries were broadly consistent with expectations, with a notable mix shift toward higher-value widebody jets that lifted the dollar value of deliveries even as unit volumes declined year over year. Strong aircraft sales activity, the best since late 2019, led him to raise his Q4 earnings estimate on higher sales and trading gains, and he also introduced a new 2027 earnings forecast while leaving his 2026 outlook unchanged. At the same time, he keeps his price target at $65, which is tied to the agreed takeout price, suggesting limited additional return potential from current levels.

Orenbuch also underscores that Air Lease’s investment program remains disciplined and largely in line with prior guidance, with full-year aircraft spending landing in the upper half of the company’s stated range. Deliveries were weighted toward the end of the year, which he expects will bolster revenue in early 2026, and the company’s order book of 218 aircraft with Airbus and Boeing provides a visible growth runway through 2031. The diversified mix of future deliveries, including narrowbodies and a handful of widebodies for carriers such as EgyptAir, Condor, and Air Canada, supports stable long-term leasing income. Nevertheless, because the current share price already approximates his unchanged $65 target, he concludes that risk and reward are roughly balanced, warranting a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating.

In another report released on January 6, Barclays also downgraded the stock to a Hold with a $65.00 price target.