Agios Pharmaceuticals: Thalassemia Approval, Premium Pricing, and Manageable REMS Drive Higher Target and Undervalued Buy Thesis

Agios Pharma, the Healthcare sector company, was revisited by a Wall Street analyst yesterday. Analyst Andrew Berens from Leerink Partners maintained a Buy rating on the stock and has a $40.00 price target.

Andrew Berens has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Agios Pharma’s recent regulatory and commercial progress. He highlights that the FDA approval of mitapivat (Aqvesme) for both transfusion‑dependent and non‑transfusion‑dependent alpha- and beta-thalassemia establishes a meaningful new revenue stream, supported by a higher‑than‑expected U.S. list price. The required REMS program for liver monitoring is viewed as operationally manageable, involving routine lab work and a one‑time prescriber certification, rather than the more restrictive framework some investors had feared. This relatively light safety program is expected to enable stronger adoption dynamics and has led Berens to materially increase his assumed probability of success in thalassemia to 100% and to raise his modeled peak penetration across patient subgroups.

Berens also underscores mitapivat’s competitive positioning versus luspatercept, noting its oral administration and broader label as drivers of superior commercial potential in thalassemia. He now forecasts approximately $250 million in U.S. thalassemia sales by 2030, even after excluding a sizeable portion of patients with cirrhosis to account for the black‑box warning, and offsets this narrowing of the addressable population with higher anticipated market share. These model revisions, together with the updated pricing assumptions, support an increased price target of $40 from $34. Importantly, he assigns no value yet to potential sickle‑cell disease use, treating it as pure upside, and concludes that Agios shares remain undervalued relative to their risk‑adjusted growth prospects, justifying his Buy recommendation.

In another report released on December 24, H.C. Wainwright also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $62.00 price target.