Adaptive Biotechnologies: Strong MRD Momentum and Path to 2026 Profitability Support Buy Rating

William Blair analyst Andrew Brackmann has reiterated their bullish stance on ADPT stock, giving a Buy rating on January 7.

Andrew Brackmann has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to Adaptive Biotechnologies’ strong operating momentum and improving financial profile. He points to significantly better-than-expected preliminary fourth-quarter results, highlighted by robust growth in clonoSEQ testing volumes and MRD revenue, as well as total company revenue meaningfully exceeding consensus expectations. He also notes improving pricing trends for clonoSEQ, expanded integrations within academic electronic medical records, greater uptake of serial monitoring in community settings, and solid sequencing gross margins projected into 2025.

Brackmann further highlights management’s 2026 outlook for the MRD franchise, which calls for continued healthy volume expansion, higher average selling prices, incremental milestone contributions, and MRD sequencing gross margins surpassing 70%, all of which support a favorable multi-year growth trajectory. On the immune medicine side, he views the strategy to concentrate on TCR-antigen data training, secure additional data partnerships, and materially reduce segment cash burn as de-risking the broader portfolio while preserving upside. He believes these dynamics put the company on a path to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by the end of 2026, and he sees potential for upside versus current MRD targets, especially in light of growing investor appetite for high-growth diagnostics platforms. Collectively, these elements underpin his view that the shares offer attractive return potential from current levels, justifying his Buy recommendation.

In another report released on January 7, TD Cowen also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $20.00 price target.