ACADIA Pharmaceuticals: U.S. Commercial Execution and Pipeline Optionality Drive Undervalued Buy Thesis Despite EU Trofinetide Delay

Analyst Sumant Kulkarni from Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals and keeping the price target at $32.00.

Sumant Kulkarni has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors tied to ACADIA’s core commercial assets and pipeline prospects. Despite the negative trend vote in Europe for trofinetide, he views this more as a regulatory delay than a thesis-breaking event, and therefore leaves his financial model unchanged for now. He continues to see the company as undervalued relative to its potential to deliver an estimated $1.5–2.0 billion in peak U.S. sales from Daybue and Nuplazid, both of which still have meaningful branded lifespans. In his view, real-world use, a solid U.S. clinical and regulatory package, and high unmet need in Rett syndrome support a constructive stance while the company works through the European process.
At the same time, Kulkarni emphasizes that the key stock drivers from here will be execution in the U.S. and future clinical data. He plans to closely monitor quarterly commercial updates, highlighting that upcoming earnings calls—particularly the 4Q25 call—will be important in gauging the trajectory of Daybue and Nuplazid. He also sees notable upside optionality in the pipeline, especially from remlifanserin for Alzheimer’s disease psychosis, where Phase 2 data expected in 2026 could be a meaningful catalyst. Even under more conservative assumptions for ex-U.S. trofinetide, his discounted cash flow analysis still supports a valuation near his $32 price target, reinforcing his Buy recommendation.

In another report released today, H.C. Wainwright also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $37.00 price target.

Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 26 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of ACAD in relation to earlier this year.