On paper, solid-state lithium-metal battery specialist QuantumScape (QS) is one of the more alluring tech enterprises, with QS stock having nearly doubled over the past year. Much of the enthusiasm can be attributed to the company’s core fundamentals rather than to mere technical fluctuations. A specialist in solid-state batteries (SSBs), QuantumScape’s underlying innovation could radically alter the mobility paradigm.
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In recent years, electric vehicles have skyrocketed in popularity and integration. Not only are we seeing more of these cars on our roads, but policmakers has also responded with an aggressive push for infrastructure. Nowadays, it’s not uncommon to see popular shopping centers offer dedicated parking for customers who want to charge while they shop.
Despite the rise of new mobility, it’s also fair to note that integration has slowed in the U.S., with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit representing a troublesome headwind. At the same time, an innovation gap exists that imposes additional challenges. Specifically, range anxiety — along with new protocols that accompany electric-vehicle ownership — has hampered efforts at wholesale adoption.
Delivering an SSB to the market — one that could address range, as well as safety and cost — could be the golden trifecta that the new mobility market desperately needs. That’s always been the investment case for QS stock. Admittedly, the technical performance hasn’t always lived up to the promise. Still, at this juncture, QuantumScape could be worth a closer look for risk-tolerant speculators.
Insiders Don’t Favor QS Stock
I’m going to address arguably the most difficult aspect of a bullish QS stance. Insiders are currently preferring to sell QS stock rather than buy it. According to TipRanks’ scoring algorithm, QuantumScape ranks as “Very Negative” in terms of informative insider transactions. There have been 12 such transactions in the past three months, and all of them involved equity trimming.
What’s perhaps most distracting is that the last informative buy occurred in early July 2025. Granted, the amount of QS stock acquired was large—more than $1.11 million—but that’s small comfort when every other transaction is a sale.
To be fair, it’s impossible to play the role of psychologist. People sell securities for a variety of reasons, especially growth names that don’t pay dividends like QS stock. That said, when people buy, they do so for one reason only: they believe the value of the security will rise. With only one insider buy, QuantumScape has a credibility issue.
Despite how it may look at first glance, the key takeaway is this: insider trading activity doesn’t have a consistently reliable relationship with a company’s future upside (or lack thereof). For instance, Palantir (PLTR) has seen very few insider buys as well, and yet you don’t hear widespread claims that the big-data company is a dud.
I’m not saying that insider transactions have no bearing. I do believe it’s instructive when insiders put their money where their mouth is. However, it’s not the end of the world when insiders don’t bite on their own stock. We’re trading the structure of QS stock, not whether the executives believe in their own marketing literature.
Playing QuantumScape’s Market Signal
In many ways, the market operates very much like an American football game. If, for example, the offense is lined up in a shotgun formation, there’s a higher probability that the ensuing play is going to be a pass (as opposed to a run). Simply put, the structure of the shotgun incentivizes going to the air.
Similarly, how public security is presently structured may affect its forward probabilities. In other words, a security on a strong winning streak will likely respond differently going forward than the same security on a losing streak.
For QS stock, in the last 10 weeks ending Friday, only three of them were up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. Ordinarily, this setup would look rather ominous for investors as the bears seem to have full control. However, over the next 10 weeks, the resolution tends to be positive.
Assuming a spot price of $10.61 (Friday’s close), QS stock would be expected to range between $9.60 and $11.80. While the margins will be tight, the probability mass should slightly favor the bulls.
Granted, that’s not the most convincing argument, but here’s an important point to remember. Under aggregate conditions, QS stock would normally suffer from a negative bias under a fixed-time distribution. However, because QS has suffered extensive bearish pressure, the stock’s statistical profile tends to shift northward, thus leading to a bullish bias.
What I’m looking for is a reflexive move back to where QS stock was trading a month ago. With that in mind, speculators may consider the 11/12 bull call spread expiring February 20, 2026. For putting $39 at risk, the trader is aiming for QS to rise through the $12 strike at expiration. If it does, the maximum profit would clock in at $61, a payout of over 156%. Breakeven would land at $11.39.
Is QS a Good Stock to Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, QS stock has a Hold consensus rating based on zero Buys, six Holds, and two Sell ratings. The average QS price target is $11.29, implying almost 10% upside potential in 2026.
Lack of Insider Belief Isn’t the End of the World for QS Stock
Ordinarily, you want to see company heavyweights believe in their messaging — not sell their own shares. Still, it’s helpful to remind ourselves that we’re trading the market signal of QS stock and not the accompanying verbiage, whether good or bad. In that regard, QuantumScape may be due for a comeback, as extensive selling tends to resolve itself in a contrarian manner.