Qualcomm (QCOM) stock fell 2.3% on Friday after top Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh downgraded the semiconductor company to Hold from Buy, citing challenges in the handset business. The analyst lowered his price target for QCOM stock to $175 from $200. Kumar also expressed concerns about the potential loss of business as key customer Apple (AAPL) is now producing its own modems.
Claim 70% Off TipRanks Premium
- Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions
- Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential
Mizuho Analyst Moves to the Sidelines on QCOM Stock
Rakesh lowered his Fiscal 2026 and Fiscal 2027 revenue and EPS (earnings per share) projections, with his revised estimates falling below the Street’s consensus. The 5-star analyst now expects Qualcomm to deliver revenue and EPS of $45.9 billion and $12.12, respectively, for Fiscal 2026 and $46.5 billion and $12.73 for Fiscal 2027.
While Rakesh expects Qualcomm to benefit from expansion in non-handset businesses (such as auto and IoT), he is concerned that the stock’s upside could be limited by challenges in the handset industry in 2026. He highlighted that the handset business accounted for more than 70% of the revenue of the company’s QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technology) business. Rakesh expects QCOM to be impacted by a 0-2% decline in global handset shipments.
In particular, Rakesh projects a $2 billion to $3 billion revenue headwind for QCOM, as he expects iPhone units to decline by 7% in 2026. The analyst also flagged the potential loss of business as Apple is now producing its own modems. “For QCOM, we believe the lower exposure to market leader Apple remains a key headwind for 2026E and beyond,” said Rakesh. He highlighted that the iPhone maker contributed $8.8 billion in revenue for Qualcomm in Fiscal 2025, and the loss of modem business could put about $3 billion at risk.
Meanwhile, Rakesh named Nvidia (NVDA), Lumentum (LITE), and Broadcom (AVGO) as Mizuho’s top picks for 2026, backed by secular trends in artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, networking, and memory. Additionally, he highlighted two key “outperformers,” Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Lam Research (LRCX), given their strategic exposure to wafer fabrication and AI-related growth. While Rakesh is positive about the semiconductor sector in the first half of 2026, he is cautious about the second half of the year due to “1) higher volatility around new product launches/ramps with Rubin/ MI400, 2) US midterm elections (11/3/2026), and 3) slower Fed rate cuts.”
Is QCOM Stock a Good Buy?
Overall, Wall Street is cautious on Qualcomm stock based on 10 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average QCOM stock price target of $197.14 indicates 11% upside potential. QCOM stock has risen 12% in the past year.
