AI is still dominating headlines, but lately those headlines have taken on a more cautious tone. Investors are asking whether the boom has peaked and whether parts of the sector are drifting into bubble territory. Recent remarks – and portfolio shifts – from hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin offer some useful context.
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Griffin argues that this year’s market gains may be running on policy support that doesn’t quite match the economic moment. The combination of fiscal and monetary measures in place, he notes, looks more like what you’d expect during a downturn rather than in an economy that’s still expanding. That mismatch, he suggests, is helping lift markets in ways that may not be fully organic.
This approach, says the billionaire, has produced a kind of “sugar high” that hides deeper issues such as inflation and a weakening dollar. And even with stocks surging, he highlighted gold’s more than 60% climb this year as a sign that investors are seeking a safe haven.
Taken together, Griffin sees a market environment defined by uncertainty, with AI carrying a particular concentration of that uncertainty. He isn’t urging investors to abandon the sector, but his own positioning suggests a shift toward being more selective about where AI exposure makes the most sense.
That selectivity is evident in his recent focus on Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) and Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI), two major names in the AI industry. Griffin has been scaling back one position while doubling down on the other. To see how closely Wall Street’s view aligns with these moves, we turned to TipRanks to review what analysts are saying, and how the broader consensus stacks up.
Palantir
We’ll start with one of the biggest names in the AI industry, Palantir Technologies. This 400-billion-dollar company has staked out a leading position as a provider of innovative, AI-powered data analytics services. Its AI Platform, the AIP, is a core product that offers users a set of varied tools with wide applications in the public and private sectors. In particular, Palantir is known for its ability to match up the intuitive flexibility of human operators with the speed of AI technology, in ways that bring out the best aspects of both.
One of the ways that Palantir has achieved this is by integrating AI technology directly into the platform user interface – and cutting out the need for users to learn any type of coding or computer language. Instructions and queries can be entered into the system in natural language, and replies can be received in the same fashion. The AI is also capable of real-time translations, allowing users to interact with Palantir’s products in their native tongue. This was a key innovation that brought high-level data analysis within reach of the average user.
Making that data analysis accessible meant that Palantir’s users could concentrate on developing insights from their data, instead of talking to the computer. Palantir’s success in selling that innovation has fueled the stock’s powerful rise in recent years; over the past three years, PLTR shares have gained an extraordinary 2,145%.
Looking at the last earnings report, released this month for 3Q25, we find that Palantir reported a quarterly revenue total of $1.18 billion, a figure that was up almost 63% year-over-year and beat the forecast by $89.5 million. Palantir’s bottom line in Q3, reported as a non-GAAP EPS, came to 21 cents, and was 4 cents per share over the estimates. The company has $6.4 billion in cash and cash equivalent assets on hand at the end of the quarter.
So, Palantir is delivering solid performance – but after the stock’s strong run in recent years, Ken Griffin decided it was time to trim his position. In the third quarter, his fund unloaded 224,152 shares, reducing its stake by 32%.
The caution isn’t limited to Griffin. While Palantir attracts plenty of analyst attention, not all of it is upbeat. RBC’s Rishi Jaluria captures the more skeptical view: “Results remain overwhelmingly U.S.-centric, with international performance stagnant (+10% YoY commercial) and bookings heavily skewed toward multi-year U.S. commercial Al contracts that may pull forward demand. While profitability remains strong, we see limited visibility into normalized growth once these early AIP deployments mature. We remain Underperform rated given an increasingly concentrated growth profile, elevated valuation, and limited visibility into sustainable AIP demand… At this level, we view the risk/reward skewed heavily to the downside.”
Jaluria’s Underperform (i.e., Sell) rating comes along with a $50 price target that implies a 70% one-year downside for the shares. (To watch Jaluria’s track record, click here)
Overall, PLTR shares have a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating from the Street’s consensus, based on 16 recent analyst reviews that include 3 Buys, 11 Holds, and 2 Sells. The shares are priced at $168.45 and their $187.87 average target price suggests a gain of 11.5% in the year ahead. (See PLTR stock forecast)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
The next name on Griffin’s list is Super Micro Computer – better known as Supermicro – one of the most advanced hardware players in the computing world and an essential force in today’s AI build-out. Since its start in 1993, Supermicro has carved out a reputation as a premier designer and supplier of high-speed, high-efficiency computer systems. Its lineup spans supercomputers, GPU-accelerated rigs, solid-state storage solutions, and the massive server stacks that power modern AI workloads.
The company stays at the front of the pack through a mix of rapid innovation and deep partnerships with the industry’s top chipmakers. That strategy has been on full display lately. Earlier last month, Supermicro rolled out full turnkey “AI factory” cluster solutions built around Nvidia’s newest Blackwell architecture. Furthermore, it introduced a new 10U air-cooled server featuring AMD’s Instinct MI355X GPUs – a system designed to deliver sharper gains in AI training and inference performance.
However, Supermicro’s stock has had a turbulent run. Delayed filings and the threat of a potential Nasdaq delisting rattled investors, sending the shares sharply lower. But the company ultimately cleaned up its auditing issues, restated its numbers, and returned to full compliance. Unfortunately, the stock recently stumbled again after a fiscal 1Q26 report that came in softer than expected.
Specifically, the top-line revenue, at $5 billion, was down 15% from the prior-year period and missed the forecast by $777.5 million. The bottom line, non-GAAP EPS of $0.35, was less than half the 1Q25 figure of $0.73 and was 4 cents per share lower than had been expected. Supermicro’s gross margin in the fiscal first quarter was 9.3%; this compared unfavorably to the fiscal 4Q25 figure of 9.5% and the fiscal 1Q25 figure of 13.1%.
Still, Ken Griffin has shown confidence in Supermicro’s longer-term trajectory. In the third quarter, the billionaire made a major purchase of SMCI – 3,743,281 shares in total. That move brought his fund’s position to 4,237,939 shares, now valued at ~$143.45 million.
SMCI has also drawn interest from one of Wall Street’s top analysts, Needham’s Quinn Bolton. Ranked #89 out of more than 10,000 analysts on TipRanks, Bolton acknowledges the near-term pressure from compressed margins but still sees substantial long-term opportunity in Super Micro Computer.
“In the near-term, margins are expected to be compressed as the company brings new facilities online to support demand. Internationally, new production facilities in Taiwan, the Netherlands, Malaysia, and soon the Middle East are coming online to expand the company’s production capacity, enhance cost competitiveness and meet sovereign AI requirements. With these new facilities online, the company should be able to scale production to 6,000 racks per month, including 3,000 liquid cooled racks, by the end of FY26. We believe this level of production should be able to support >$100BN in annualized revenue. Although near-term margins will be muted, we believe the company is positioning itself to gain share as data center build-outs continue to increase at a rapid pace,” Bolton opined.
These comments back up Bolton’s Buy rating on SMCI shares, and his $51 price target points toward a one-year upside potential of ~51%. (To watch Bolton’s track record, click here)
The broader Street takes a more measured stance. SMCI carries a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus rating based on 12 recent analyst reviews – split evenly between 5 Buys and 5 Holds, with 2 Sells rounding out the mix. Yet, the average price target of $46.82 points to a potential 38% gain over the coming year. (See SMCI stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.