To listen to Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, the sky is truly the limit. The company head made some bold pronouncements on the company’s Q2 earnings report last month, such as the prediction that “we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the US by the end of the year.”
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Of course, world-changing ambitions are nothing new for Musk, who has made no secret of his designs of making Tesla the most valuable company in the world. Many investors are happy to go along for the ride, though it has been a bumpy one over the past year.
While TSLA’s share price is up 71% over the past twelve months, 2025 has seen its shares of ups and downs and it has fallen 16% for the year. Indeed, Musk’s declining popularity across large swaths of the U.S. and Europe – key markets for Tesla – drove EV sales down during the first half of the year.
Despite the eye-watering figures of the technologically ambitious projects, one investor known by the pseudonym Hunting Alpha is latching onto the real-world numbers. The investor believes that these provide plenty of reasons for why TSLA is a no-go zone for now.
“I continue to be bearish on the stock due to mounting challenges in its current business and seemingly overoptimistic expectations on new developments,” explains Hunting Alpha.
The investor cites the expiration of the EV tax credits, which add another pressure point for declining sales figures. Though Hunting Alpha does acknowledge that there could be a sequential increase this quarter as consumers rush to buy EVs before the $7,500 cushion goes away – CFO Vaibhav Taneja encouraged buyers to “place your order now” – the investor anticipates a “sharp demand slowdown” in the months that follow.
Another cause for concern is the “robotaxi dream,” which the investor believes is a bit farther out on the horizon than bulls might be hoping for. Take Musk’s pronouncement that the company will available for half the U.S. by the end of the year. Currently, Hunting Alpha points out, Tesla is present in just two major regions – Austin, Texas and the San Francisco Bay Area – which are home to roughly 9 million people.
“Going from 9 million to 174 million in just 5 months seems rather unrealistic to me,” emphasizes Hunting Alpha, who reminds investors that there some 347 million Americans.
While the future might be bright, it’s just not enough for Hunting Alpha at present.
“I cannot ignore the headwinds in its current business,” concludes Hunting Alpha, who rates TSLA a Sell. (To watch Hunting Alpha’s track record, click here)
Wall Street, however, sees the bull and the bear case, as well as the more neutral middle ground. With 14 Buys, 15 Holds, and 8 Sells, TSLA holds a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. Its 12-month average price target of $307.23 has a downside of ~9%. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.