Pfizer Stock (PFE) Rises despite Weaker 2026 Profit Outlook on Fading COVID-19 Franchise

Shares in Pfizer (PFE) inched higher early Tuesday even as the U.S. pharma giant forecast 2026 earnings that are below Wall Street’s expectations.

The projected dip is partly attributed to an expected $1.5 billion year-over-year decline in COVID-19 product sales versus 2025. At the end of Fiscal Year 2026, Pfizer expects to report earnings per share between $2.80 and $3.00, below analysts’ projected $3.06.

COVID-19 Sales to Drag on Pfizer’s Revenue

In addition, the upper range of its revenue projection of between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion is below the Wall Street consensus of $61.68 billion. Similarly, its FY25 revenue projection of $62 billion — revised from between $61 billion and $64 billion — slightly falls below the consensus of $62.52 billion.

Pfizer expects its COVID-19 product sales to come in at $5 billion, building on shrinking sales in previous quarters, as the image below shows. In its Q3 2025 earnings report in September, the pharmaceutical company’s revenue also fell by 7% year-over-year to $17.7 billion, weakened by a 55% drop in sales of its oral antiviral Paxlovid — a COVID-19 treatment — and a 20% drop in sales of its Comirnaty COVID-19 vaccine.

In addition, by FY26, Pfizer expects to make $1.5 billion less compared to a year ago due to the loss of patent exclusivity for certain of its products. It sees this headwind resulting in an annual revenue loss of $17 billion by 2030.

A Pivot Back to Pfizer Fundamentals in 2026?

However, Pfizer emphasized that it is “on track” to deliver major cost savings of $7.2 billion by 2026. It pointed to efforts to reduce the impact of its falling COVID-19 revenues, including its obesity strategy, tariff exemption, and pricing deal with the Trump administration.

Consequently, the American firm expects progress with its cost realignment program, with spending on its adjusted selling, informational, and administrative, as well as research and development expenses expected to come in between $23 billion and $25 billion.

Analysts on Wall Street have continued to trim their price targets for PFE stock, even as Morgan Stanley (MS) expects attention to shift back to Pfizer’s fundamentals in 2026, away from political and regulatory stumbling blocks.

Is Pfizer a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Across Wall Street, Pfizer’s shares continue to have a Hold consensus rating. This is based on five Buys, 11 Holds, and one Sell issued by 17 analysts over the past three months.

In addition, the average PFE price target of $28.44 implies about 8% upside from current trading levels.

See more PFE analyst ratings here.