Investors betting on artificial intelligence have a choice between two very different plays. On one end sits Palantir Technologies (PLTR), the high-margin operator with government contracts and a software platform that’s quickly becoming a fixture in corporate boardrooms. On the other hand, there’s BigBear.ai (BBAI), a small-cap defense and analytics player still trying to prove it belongs in the same conversation. For investors looking to be among the next AI-made millionaires, the question is which of these two paths leads there first.
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Palantir’s second-quarter performance gave CEO Alex Karp plenty to celebrate. U.S. revenue surged 68% year over year, while commercial sales jumped 93% and government contracts rose 53%. The company closed 157 deals worth more than $1 million each, bringing total contract value to $2.27 billion, a 140% increase from a year earlier.
The numbers represent the growing adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP. Palantir now expects full-year 2025 revenue of about $4.15 billion, up from previous forecasts, and third-quarter sales around $1.08 billion. The guidance bump adds weight to the view that the company’s AI dominance is only deepening.
BigBear.ai Struggles to Find Its Footing
BigBear.ai’s story looks very different. Revenue in the second quarter dropped 18% to $32.5 million as several U.S. government contracts stalled. Management cut its full-year forecast to between $125 million and $140 million, down sharply from earlier expectations of as much as $180 million.
The company’s backlog sits near $380 million, but only a small fraction is confirmed and authorized, leaving much of its pipeline dependent on long approval cycles. Losses are also widening as BigBear.ai posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $8.5 million in the quarter, more than double last year’s figure.
Investors Tilt Toward Palantir’s Stability
For investors deciding where to put new money, Palantir’s outlook remains far clearer. Its raised forecasts, strong deal flow, and expanding AIP ecosystem suggest a durable growth path. The valuation is steep, its price-to-sales ratio is more than 100, but the company continues to justify those expectations with momentum that few AI peers can match.
BigBear.ai, by contrast, is still playing catch-up. Its reliance on government contracts and uneven execution make it a speculative bet, though new partnerships with the U.S. Navy and airport systems could offer a glimmer of progress.
In the AI space, Palantir looks built for scale. BigBear.ai still has to prove it can survive long enough to get there. Investors can compare both stocks side-by-side based on various financial metrics and analyst ratings on the TipRanks Stocks Comparison Tool. Click on the image below to explore the tool.
