OpenAI reached a $300 billion valuation in 2025 after its latest fundraising round of $8.3 billion, with SoftBank (SFTBY) and other major firms leading the deal. Reports also point to ongoing talks for a possible secondary sale that could lift the figure to $500 billion, but that has not closed yet. For now, the $300 billion number is the official benchmark.
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The valuation builds on rising use of ChatGPT and rapid growth in recurring business from subscriptions and enterprise services. As of 2025, OpenAI is drawing in around $13 billion in revenue. Projections suggest that number could climb to $30 billion in 2026, $60 billion in 2027, and $100 billion in 2028. By 2029, analysts expect $125 billion to $145 billion. Looking further out, OpenAI has set a long-term target of $200 billion by 2030.
Main Revenue Drivers
The largest driver today is ChatGPT subscriptions. Paying users include both consumers and companies. This group already brings in more than half of the total revenue, with enterprise accounts playing a growing part. In parallel, OpenAI earns from application programming interface services through its partnership with Microsoft (MSFT). These services allow firms to plug advanced models into tools for coding, service, and automation.
Moreover, OpenAI plans to add revenue from affiliate shopping and commerce features aimed at free ChatGPT users. By 2029, this stream alone could be worth about $25 billion each year. At the same time, the company is moving into new areas with AI agents and specialized products for fields such as health and finance. The firm also expects market share gains as the demand for AI-as-a-service expands.
Key Risks Ahead
However, several risks stand in the way of these forecasts. One challenge is the cost of running and training advanced models. OpenAI is set to spend heavily on GPUs, data centers, and staff. Analysts project total cash burn at $115 billion through 2029. Another challenge is timing, since the firm does not expect to turn cash flow positive until that year.
Another issue is competition. Google (GOOG)(GOOGL), Anthropic, Mistral AI, and Meta (META) all fight for market share in both consumer and enterprise AI, and we haven’t mentioned DeepSeek, or Alibaba (BABA). Already, OpenAI’s share of the enterprise space dropped from about 50% in 2023 to around 34% in 2024. With rivals offering aggressive pricing and bundling their own products, pressure on OpenAI’s margins could increase.
On top of that, only a small part of ChatGPT’s 500 million weekly users pay for access today. The plan to earn billions from ads and affiliate links is still unproven. If that does not scale, total revenue growth may fall short of expectations. Lastly, new laws on AI use could raise costs or limit how products are sold across regions.
Outlook
In short, OpenAI’s forecast predicts rapid growth and a leap in revenue through 2029. Yet that growth depends on both strong user monetization and constant new product launches. In this industry, 3 to 4 years can seem like a lifetime, so only time will tell if the company can keep pace while also holding ground against strong competitors.
Using TipRanks’ Comparison Tool, we’ve compared some of the notable companies that employ chatbots, similar to OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The comparison tool helps investors gain a broader outlook on each stock and the industry as a whole.
