Oil Stocks Lose Energy as Iranian Nuclear Deal Could Lead to More Supply and Lower Prices

Shares in energy giants BP (BP), Shell (SHEL) and ExxonMobil (XOM) fell today as talk of a U.S. and Iran nuclear deal led to a drop in oil prices.

Close to a Deal

BP was down 1.4%, Shell off 1% and ExxonMobil 2% weaker following comments from President Trump that the U.S. was making progress in its talks with Iran to put the brakes on its nuclear program. “We’re getting closer to maybe doing a deal,” Trump told reporters during his trip to the Middle East.

A deal between the two countries could lead to the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran, potentially leading to more supplies of oil on the global market. Iran has the fourth largest reserves of oil in the world and even with restrictions averaged 1.56 million barrels per day between January and May this year.

Prices of Brent Crude oil dropped as much as 4%, though to just over $63, though it strengthened later in the day.

Higher Economic Growth

It came as the International Energy Agency raised its oil demand growth forecast in 2025 to 740,000 barrels per day, up 20,000 barrels per day from its previous report. It cited higher economic growth forecasts, a less severe hit than first expected from U.S. tariffs and lower oil prices supporting consumption.

Next year, the IEA said, demand is expected to rise by 760,000 barrels per day.

OPEC+, which produces more than half of the world’s crude oil, is projected to increase output by 310,000 barrels per day in 2025 and a further 150,000 barrels per day in 2026.

In its most recent Q1 results, BP said profit at its gas and low-carbon unit was down around 40%, hit by weaker trading and lower production after asset sales. It also highlighted lower gas and oil prices as a result of tariffs.

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