The White House is weighing the possibility of allowing Nvidia (NVDA) to sell its H200 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China. Raymond James’ analysts believe the odds have “meaningfully increased” and views this as a “strategic win-win that sustains China’s dependency on U.S. AI infrastructure.” Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold has a Buy rating on NVDA stock and a price target of $272, implying 51.5% upside potential from current levels.
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The analysts also contend this move could discourage the adoption of alternative, home-grown chips from domestic players such as Huawei and DeepSeek. The step would align with U.S. President Donald Trump’s vision of maintaining America’s leadership in the AI arms race.
However, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang remains unsure whether China would accept Nvidia’s H200 AI chips if the U.S. lowers its export restrictions. He also warned that if the chip’s performance is weakened before export, Chinese buyers may reject it.
Here’s What Happened
Huang confirmed ongoing discussions with the White House about the possible export of H200 chips. Introduced more than two years ago, the H200 is a more capable graphics processing unit (GPU) than its H20, the Nvidia chip currently approved for sale in China. Both use the older Hopper technology, unlike Nvidia’s latest Blackwell chips sold in the U.S.
It is important to note that Huang clarified Blackwell chips were not part of these discussions. Analysts thus interpret this as a sign that administration officials may be shifting toward exporting the older-generation H200 to China rather than the newer Blackwell or Rubin versions.
The White House’s willingness to allow the export of the U.S.’ advanced chips follows recent deals with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, where 70,000 AI chips, including Blackwell variants, were cleared for export to Abu Dhabi’s G42 and the Saudi startup Humain. The analysts also highlighted that the administration is permitting the sale of advanced AI infrastructure only “under appropriate export-control guardrails.”
Is NVDA Stock a Strong Buy?
On TipRanks, NVDA stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 39 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell rating. The average Nvidia price target of $258.10 implies 43.7% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, NVDA stock has gained 33.8%.
