Nvidia Stock Won’t Make Millionaires From Here, Unless AI Demand Goes Parabolic

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is up 45% since April, now hovering around $140. That sounds like a win. But for retail investors hoping this will mint the next generation of millionaires, there’s a catch: most of the good news is already priced in. Wall Street still loves Nvidia, but the higher it goes, the harder it becomes to justify buying more—unless something explosive happens in AI demand.

Broadcom Earnings Prove the AI Pie Is Real — and Growing

Broadcom (AVGO) just reported Q2 results, beating expectations and raising guidance. The key number? A projected 60% growth in AI revenue this Fiscal year. That’s massive. And even though AVGO dipped slightly after earnings, the broader message was bullish for the whole chip sector: AI demand isn’t slowing.

This supports Nvidia’s entire bull case. Nvidia sells the chips that train and deploy AI models. If cloud giants like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) are still pouring billions into AI infrastructure, Nvidia will remain the backbone of that effort.

Why AI Growth Needs to Go Exponential to Justify Nvidia’s Price

Here’s the hard truth: even a great company can become a bad investment at the wrong price. Nvidia’s market cap now reflects a future where AI continues to expand indefinitely. That means AI must expand into new industries like healthcare, robotics, and manufacturing. Edge computing needs to explode. AI hardware refresh cycles need to shorten. Governments and enterprises need to ramp up AI R&D.

If these things don’t accelerate at scale, Nvidia risks running ahead of its fundamentals. That’s why the stock may not create millionaires from here—unless we get another generational leap in spending.

Valuation Is Now the Enemy of Asymmetry

Back in 2022 and even 2023, Nvidia was still misunderstood. You could buy shares and realistically expect a 2x or 3x return. Today? That asymmetry is gone. With a forward P/E near 50 and trillions in market cap, the company needs to beat high expectations every quarter just to tread water.

This makes it hard for small investors to win big. You’re not catching a rocket ship at liftoff. You’re hopping on after it’s halfway to orbit. Sure, it might keep climbing. But the risk/reward has fundamentally changed.

A Macro Setup That’s Starting to Tighten

Nvidia’s growth narrative also faces macro threats. U.S.-China chip tensions limit sales of high-end GPUs abroad. A strong dollar may weigh on foreign demand. Rates remain high, tightening funding for startups and AI moonshots.

And then there’s the bond market. If Treasury yields spike again, tech multiples could compress. Nvidia is particularly sensitive to these macro ripples, which could pull the stock down even if earnings stay solid.

Great Businesses Don’t Guarantee Great Returns

Investors need to ask: Is Nvidia the next Apple or the next Cisco? Apple rode the smartphone wave for over a decade, compounding steadily. Cisco, during the dot-com boom, also led a tech revolution. But anyone who bought Cisco at the peak in 2000 had to wait nearly 20 years to break even.

The question isn’t just “how good is Nvidia?” It’s “how much of that greatness is already priced in?”

Nvidia Is a Winner, But That Doesn’t Make You One

Nvidia’s fundamentals are strong. Its technology is best-in-class. And AI isn’t a fad. But the dream of getting rich from here may be just that—a dream. Unless AI spending enters a new phase of hyper-acceleration, Nvidia may deliver solid, steady gains—not life-changing ones. And that’s a distinction every long-term investor needs to understand before chasing another breakout.

Is Nvidia a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TipRanks shows a Strong Buy consensus on NVDA, based on 35 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell rating. The average NVDA target price is $172.36. That implies a 23% upside, but in this kind of rally, forward gains don’t come easy. You need acceleration—not just growth, but growth of the growth.

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