Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been under pressure since the AI chip giant reported FQ2 results about 11 days ago, as the numbers left some investors disappointed. While growth remained strong, the pace appeared to be cooling when set against the massive leaps delivered in earlier quarters.
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That slowdown raised questions about whether Nvidia’s meteoric growth might finally be peaking. Yet, according to J.P. Morgan’s Harlan Sur, an analyst ranked amongst the top 1% of Street stock experts, those worries appear misplaced.
Following an investor group meeting with Nvidia’s VP of IR and Strategic Finance Toshiya Hari, Sur pointed out that “demand continues to outweigh supply, keeping lead times stretched but stable.” Even with Blackwell Ultra (BWU) “ramping sharply” in FQ2 – accounting for roughly 50% of the Blackwell mix – management emphasized that lead times are still measured in quarters rather than months, a sign that the AI demand wave remains intact more than two years into the spending cycle.
Essentially, the pace of BW and BWU rack shipments “hasn’t really changed” over the past three months, remaining fairly stable at around 1,000 racks per week. The main shift has been in the mix, with a greater proportion going to BWU, which generated roughly the same revenue as BW in FQ2. Supply chain partners are expected to expand capacity in the second half of F2026, paving the way for renewed growth later in the year.
Addressing another investor concern – Nvidia’s balance sheet inventory growth in FQ2 (+33% sequentially) – management clarified that the increase was deliberate, aimed at supporting a stronger BWU ramp in FQ3. In fact, most of the $8.7 billion in finished goods recorded at the end of FQ2 (up from $3.5 billion in FQ1) have already been shipped this quarter.
Looking further ahead, Nvidia also reaffirmed that the Vera Rubin platform is on track for a C2H26 launch, despite speculation of delays, with all six chips already taped out at TSMC.
All told, Sur assigns NVDA an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating and a $215 price target, implying ~29% upside from current levels. (To watch Sur’s track record, click here)
That constructive outlook aligns with supply chain checks from Citi’s Atif Malik, another top-ranked analyst, who also sees AI demand powering Nvidia forward. Malik’s conversations at the Citi Global TMT Conference point to AI market growth of over 40% in 2026. Suppliers anticipate a smooth handoff from GB200 to GB300, with GB300 shipments set for a “massive ramp” in Q4 – a shift that should further bolster Nvidia’s gross margins.
Still, Malik cautions that after the strong rally over the past six months, the stock may need a pause before the next leg up. Even so, the analyst flags CEO Jensen Huang’s upcoming 10/28 GTC keynote as the next major catalyst and backs the stock with a Buy rating and a $210 price target, suggesting ~26% further upside. (To watch Malik’s track record, click here)
Overall, NVDA stock enjoys broad-based support across Wall Street; with 34 Buys, 3 Holds, and 1 Sell, the consensus rating lands at Strong Buy. Based on the $211.36 average price target, analysts see a 26.5% gain over the next year. (See NVDA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.