Nvidia (NVDA) Is About to Report Q1 Earnings. Here’s What to Expect

Semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of Fiscal 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday, May 28. NVDA stock has advanced 28% over the past month due to optimism related to easing tariff tensions and the deals with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Despite challenges related to Chip export restrictions and rising competition in the AI (artificial intelligence) space, most analysts remain bullish on Nvidia’s long-term growth potential, backed by robust demand for its GPUs (graphics processing units). Wall Street expects Nvidia to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.73 for Q1 FY26, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20%.

Further, analysts expect Q1 FY26 revenue to grow by 66.5% to $43.3 billion, thanks to continued demand for the company’s advanced chips that are required to build and train AI models. It should be noted that Nvidia’s fiscal first-quarter results will include a $5.5 billion charge related to the curbs on AI chip exports to China and other countries.  

Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on the impact of ongoing trade wars on Nvidia’s business. Notably, China is one of the key markets for the company. According to Main Street Data, the company generated $17.1 billion in revenue from China in Fiscal 2025, representing 13% of the overall revenue.

Analysts’ Views Ahead of Nvidia’s Q1 Earnings

Heading into the Q1 results, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy reiterated a Buy rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of $180, as he views it as “attractively valued” despite ongoing pressures related to China restrictions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. The 5-star analyst expects Nvidia to report “largely in-line results and outlook,” noting that recent restrictions on its H20 AI chips in China have had an adverse impact on its revenue.

Nonetheless, Roy sees strong momentum ahead, with Stifel’s supply chain discussions indicating significant acceleration into the second half of the year, given Nvidia’s expanding presence in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, along with broader supply chain strength. Despite concerns related to hyperscaler demand, sustainability of infrastructure investment, China chip export restrictions, and potential margin pressure on early GB200/300 ramps, Roy does not see any change to Nvidia’s “leadership positioning in shaping global AI infrastructure.”

Meanwhile, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya reaffirmed a Buy rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of $160. Based on supply chain and investor discussions as well as the company’s commentary at the recent Computex tradeshow on the U.S. government’s ban on H20 sales to China, the analyst provided an updated preview note. Specifically, the 5-star highlighted the disconnect between Nvidia’s “$15bn in lost China sales” with the lower $10 billion to $12 billion recent revision in his FY26 and calendar year 2025 sales expectations, and even lower $3.8 billion in consensus revisions.

Also, aside from the China impact, Arya is looking forward to management’s confidence in gross margin recovery back to the target mid-70s level in the second half of the year, as an indication of demand strength and Blackwell execution/rack-level product yields. Despite near-term headwinds, Arya called Nvidia a top sector pick due to its “unique leverage to the global AI deployment cycle and possibility for China sales recovery on new redesigned/compliant products later in the year.”

Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on NVDA’s Q1 Earnings

Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.

Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 7.85% move in either direction in Nvidia stock in reaction to Q1 results.

Is Nvidia Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Overall, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Nvidia stock based on 34 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average NVDA stock price target of $164.51 implies 25.3% upside potential.

See more NVDA analyst ratings