Nvidia (NVDA), oh Nvidia — you’ve done it again. After rallying more than 40% in the past three months, the AI chip juggernaut is now within striking distance of a $4 trillion market cap, a feat no company has ever achieved. If it can hold just a little more ground, it won’t just break records, it will set a new bar for what a tech company can be worth in the public markets.
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And all this comes while CEO Jensen Huang is still actively warning about a $15 billion revenue hit from China export curbs. Nvidia isn’t climbing on perfect conditions, it’s climbing through headwinds. That makes the run even more telling.
$3.915 Trillion and $4 Trillion, The Numbers in Play
Here’s the setup: If Nvidia stock can close above $160.46, it would overtake Apple’s (AAPL) record $3.915 trillion market cap, a high-water mark reached in late 2023 during Apple’s last valuation surge. If it pushes further, to $163.93, Nvidia would become the first company ever to touch a $4 trillion market cap.
And this isn’t happening on hype alone. Nvidia’s positioning as the infrastructure layer of the AI boom makes it less cyclical and more critical, especially as hyperscalers and sovereign tech stacks flood the market with demand for compute.
From Tariff Fears to AI Euphoria, The Market Has Flipped
Back in May, Huang warned that U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China could cost Nvidia up to $15 billion in lost sales. The market absorbed that hit, and then blew past it.
Investors appear to be betting that demand from U.S. and European hyperscalers, sovereign AI funds, and enterprise adoption will more than offset the China headwind. And so far, the price action agrees. The stock hasn’t just recovered, it’s outpacing virtually every other mega-cap, while dragging the entire chip sector along with it.
The Sector Is Watching, But Not All Chips Are Rallying
While Nvidia flirts with a 4 trillion-dollar barrier, the rest of the chip market is mixed. AMD (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) ticked slightly higher, but Broadcom (AVGO) and Intel (INTC) were flat to down heading into the U.S. open. It’s a reminder that not all semiconductor plays are created equal. Nvidia has become the purest expression of AI infrastructure in the public market, and right now, it’s trading like a utility for the future of intelligence.
What the Milestones Actually Mean
A $4 trillion valuation wouldn’t just put Nvidia at the top of the S&P 500, it would send a message. It would confirm that AI isn’t a feature or a trend, it’s a platform-level shift, and Nvidia is the one holding the keys.
At that level, Nvidia would be worth more than the entire energy sector in some years. It would be the first time a company built on compute, not consumer hardware, became the world’s most valuable.
That’s the signal the market is now toying with, not just that Nvidia’s run is impressive, but that it might not be over.
Is Nvidia a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
According to TipRanks, Nvidia maintains a Strong Buy rating from 40 Wall Street analysts, with 35 Buys, four Holds, and just one Sell in the past three months. The average 12-month NVDA price target sits at $175.97, which implies a 9.98% upside from the current price of $160.00.
Despite valuation concerns from a few skeptics, the overwhelming consensus still favors Nvidia as the most important name in AI infrastructure — and the price targets reflect that.
