Notion’s IPO Could Shake the Market

Notion, a $12 billion company that provides productivity software, plans to go public as soon as possible and raise around $200 million through the deal. At this moment, it is clear that the firm is starting to apply some strategies toward an IPO, such as expanding into other countries and securing multiple rounds of financing.

Notion’s Strategies and Results

Since 2022, Notion has reached an estimated value of $10 billion, and two big companies, Sequoia and Index Ventures, have invested in the company. In addition, the software firm looks forward to establishing another office in emerging markets, such as Brazil. According to the executives, the South American country has some of the most engaged users in the world when it comes to adding AI to daily work duties. The private company‘s plan is for the long term, and proof of this is that they hired two executives with years of experience, Francisco Chang and Arthur Rozenblit.

Along with it, Notion has had two distinct eras. The first, Hypergrowth, refers to the period when the software company saw its valuation jump 12.5 times in just 2 years (2019 to 2021), and revenue went from $3 million to $31 million. Subsequently, the second period can be referred to as Revenue Catch-up, since it increased nearly 10 times, from $67 million to $600 million, in just 3 years (2022 to 2025), but the valuation stayed flat compared with the previous period.

Another strategy they are using is to raise multiple rounds of investments. This is common for startups, such as the fintech Ramp (RAMP), which secured four financing rounds in the last year. By the end of 2025, Notion’s investors injected $200 million to accelerate the IPO process, and it seems to be just the beginning of more injections of capital.

How Should Notion be Priced?

So far, Notion’s stock price is unknown. In spite of this, some investors are slightly apprehensive, since Section 409A may trigger ordinary income treatment. This legislation aims to prevent executives and employees from using compensation to push taxes into the future. Violating the rules results in immediate taxation with an extra 20% penalty for the individual. On top of that, the company may face reporting obligations, withholding requirements, and regulatory risks.

If the company sets a price higher than expected, employee morale is likely to improve, as higher valuations increase the perceived value of equity. That paper wealth can then be turned into cash through liquidity events such as secondary sales. As a point of comparison, OpenAI and Stripe have used similar strategies.

Moreover, the secondary windows are a risky step for any company, but Notion seems to be conservative at the moment. The firm’s leadership is trying to minimize chaotic transactions and parallel marketing. In the meantime, investors have additional exposure without waiting for an IPO. Within this framework, the pre-IPO enables upward 409A valuation adjustments, offers early investors partial liquidity, and the market seems to be confident. With all of those items together, Notion’s outlook seems to be very positive for the next steps.

Furthermore, the integration with AI provided a significant increase in Notion’s revenue. After this addition, advanced users started to use these neural networks and subscribe to more expensive plans, expanding its income.

All in all, we still don’t know how much Notion’s stock will cost. Although there are a lot of good indicators for Notion’s IPO, if it moves forward, the tax obligations will rise, but early liquidity can fund them, minimizing personal risks. Until that moment, the company’s steps show fiscal discipline and make it a good company to watch this year.