Nio (NYSE:NIO) stock has been in recovery mode over the past two months, jumping 96% and offering some respite for the Chinese EV maker. The rebound follows a multi-year downturn – and even after the recent rally, the shares remain down 66% over the past three years.
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J.P. Morgan analyst Nick Lai puts the recent gains down to “robust order flows” from two new launches – the Onvo L90 and Nio ES8 SUVs. Both are positioned competitively on price, with Nio’s distinctive BAAS (battery-as-a-service) program cutting the upfront cost by roughly 25–30%, making its models more appealing against similar offerings in the segment.
That backdrop, Lai argues, sets the stage for more than a short-term rally. The analyst sees three catalysts in the months ahead that could provide further lift. First, Nio is preparing to reveal the official pricing of the ES8 during its annual Nio Day on September 20, after already generating what Lai estimates could be 30,000 pre-orders within the first week of its soft launch. Lower-than-expected final pricing, he suggests, could accelerate conversions from tentative interest into firm sales.
Second, the company will post Q2 results on September 2. While Lai doesn’t expect big surprises in the report itself, he does anticipate upward revisions to earnings estimates, helped by what he calls a “rapid reduction” of bottom-line losses.
The third catalyst comes later in the year, when the Guangzhou Auto Show in late November will spotlight the Onvo L80, a new five-seat BEV SUV that could become Nio’s first true volume model. Lai forecasts an MSRP of around RMB 230,000–240,000 – or closer to RMB 150,000 under the BAAS program – and expects further new or refreshed models across Nio and Firefly brands into 2026. With these launches, he projects Nio will deliver 50% volume growth in 2025 and another 47% in 2026.
Still, optimism is tempered by concerns over Nio’s financial health. The company continues to burn cash, and profitability remains elusive. Management has flagged a turnaround in 4Q25, yet the Street still expects losses of roughly RMB 1.9 billion based on deliveries of 112,000 units. Lai’s own, more optimistic forecast of 122,000 units leads him to “conservatively” project profitability in the second half of 2026, provided execution on launches remains strong.
Balancing the opportunities against the risks, Lai has upgraded Nio shares from Neutral to Overweight (i.e., Buy) and bumped his price target from $4.80 to $8, implying 21% upside from current levels. (To watch Lai’s track record, click here)
Elsewhere on the Street, three of Lai’s colleagues also take a positive stance, and with an additional six Holds and one Sell, the analyst consensus rates the stock a Moderate Buy. However, based on the $5.14 average target, a year from now shares are expected to be changing hands at a ~28% discount. Given the discrepancy, look out for more NIO model tweaking in the analyst community shortly. (See NIO stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.