NIO Earnings: NIO Still Can’t Turn Deliveries Into Dollars

NIO shares (NIO) edged lower Tuesday after the company posted a wider-than-expected loss for the first quarter. This showcases a core challenge now facing China’s EV sector: growth isn’t translating into profitability. While deliveries are accelerating, rising competition and aggressive pricing are applying direct pressure to margins.

NIO reported a loss of $0.45 per share on $1.7 billion in revenue, missing Wall Street’s estimate of a $0.35 loss. Revenue met expectations, but the deeper-than-expected loss highlights an imbalance that’s become increasingly familiar in this market — costs are rising faster than sales.

NIO Expands Sales Volume, But Shrinks Per-Vehicle Profitability

NIO delivered 42,094 vehicles in Q1 2025, up from 30,053 a year earlier — a 40% jump in unit volume. Yet revenue grew only 22% over the same period, from $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion. The gap between delivery growth and revenue growth points directly to a decline in average selling price or a rise in discounting — a sign that the company is making less per car, even as it sells more.

The EV market in China is crowded and increasingly driven by price. Tesla, BYD, XPeng, and a growing list of homegrown players are engaged in a full-scale price war. NIO’s sales growth is real, but the market isn’t letting the company capitalize on that scale. Instead, it’s being forced to cut into margins just to stay competitive.

That pressure is showing up on the bottom line. Costs are rising — whether through promotional activity, tech investment, or simply squeezed gross margins — and that’s keeping the company firmly in the red despite its growing top line.

NIO Issues Forward Guidance that Signals Progress but Not Enough Surprise

Looking ahead, NIO expects second-quarter deliveries between 72,000 and 75,000 units, with revenue guidance around $2.7 billion. That suggests roughly 31% sequential growth in unit volume from Q1, and an increase from the 57,373 vehicles it delivered in Q2 of last year.

However, much of that future delivery count is already known. NIO reported 47,131 vehicles delivered across April and May, implying June deliveries of around 26,000. That would be up from 21,209 in June 2024 — a solid increase, but not a leap. And Wall Street had been expecting a bit more. Revenue guidance at $2.7 billion also slightly trails the $2.8 billion analysts had penciled in.

NIO’s growth is steady, but not breaking away. And in a market that now demands not just improvement but upside surprise, “in line” results just don’t move the needle.

The Broader EV Market Is More Difficult

The broader backdrop is turning more difficult. The post-subsidy EV era in China is defined by cutthroat pricing, massive R&D spend, and supply chain volatility. NIO finds itself caught between better-capitalized rivals like BYD (BYDDF) (BYDDY) and global giants like Tesla (TSLA), both of whom can afford to lower prices and absorb short-term margin pain in the race for long-term market share.

The economic effect is textbook margin compression. Consumer pricing is trending lower. Input costs, especially for batteries and critical materials, remain unpredictable. Fixed costs remain high as EV makers continue to pour cash into software platforms, next-gen chips, and autonomous tech.

NIO’s position in this mix remains challenging. The brand is recognized, and its tech ambitions are well-known, but without scale advantages or pricing power, it is spending heavily just to defend its share of the market — not expand it.

NIO’s Valuation Struggles to Justify Itself

Shares of NIO were down 1% to $3.48 in early trading Tuesday. That brings the stock’s year-to-date decline to roughly 20%, and a trailing 12-month drop of 32%. In the same window, the S&P 500 is slightly higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat. The contrast shows that while U.S. equities are digesting rate cuts and soft-landing hopes, NIO is still searching for financial stability.

From a valuation perspective, the market is pulling back. Even with strong delivery growth, investors are no longer rewarding EV firms on volume alone. What matters now is earnings leverage — and right now, NIO doesn’t have it.

The fundamentals are forcing a shift. Growth without profitability is no longer enough, especially in a capital-intensive industry with rising execution risk. And with guidance falling just short of bullish expectations, the market’s patience is clearly thinning.

NIO is moving more cars, but the economics behind each sale are deteriorating. Until the company can scale profitably or find new pricing power, its story remains one of top-line momentum without bottom-line conversion.

Is NIO a Good Stock to Buy?

As of now, NIO carries a Hold rating based on consensus from 10 Wall Street analysts, according to TipRanks. Only two analysts call it a Buy, while seven recommend a Hold and only one rates it a Sell. The average 12-month NIO price target sits at $5.07, which implies nearly 42% upside from current levels.

However, these ratings could be in flux. If NIO shows real traction in margins, battery tech, or deliveries — particularly in high-growth markets — analysts could revise upward. On the flip side, any signs of production slowdowns or regulatory pushback might turn Hold ratings into Sells. Watch for analyst revisions closely in the coming weeks — they often move faster than fundamentals.

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