While the major market indexes have all slipped decisively into the red this year, Bitcoin (BTC) is still holding its ground. Despite pulling back 14% from its record high, the flagship cryptocurrency remains modestly in the green year-to-date.
And the outlook might be about to get even brighter. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, believes Bitcoin is gearing up for another breakout.
“We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from US assets to trigger the next sharp upswing in Bitcoin in the coming months,” says Kendrick. “A number of indicators support our view that Bitcoin is headed for the next leg higher.”
Among those indicators is the U.S. Treasury term premium – a metric closely correlated with Bitcoin – which has surged to its highest level in 12 years. Kendrick also cites a “time-of-day analysis” suggesting U.S. investors are shifting capital overseas. On top of that, major crypto holders (“whales”) have resumed active accumulation, and recent ETF flows point to capital rotating out of gold and into Bitcoin.
“We expect these supportive factors to push BTC to a fresh all-time high around USD 120,000 in Q2,” Kendrick opined. After reaching that milestone, the uptick should continue through the summer, with BTC then heading towards Kendrick’s year-end forecast of 200,000.
Kendrick’s advice is to act before BTC’s price explodes higher and he points to historical patterns to show why that is important. 2024 might have been a pivotal year for Bitcoin, with the price climbing from $42,500 to a peak of $108,000, however, much of the year was characterized by sideways movement; significant gains were largely confined to February and March, following the approval of US ETFs in January, and October and November, around the time of Trump’s election victory. Investors who successfully timed these moves saw strong returns, while for those who missed them, the returns “would have been close to zero.”
“Similar to past BTC price movements, we do not expect the rise towards our year-end forecast to be a straight line,” Kendrick went on to add. “And we believe the next big leg higher is imminent.”
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.