Nebius Group (NBIS) is quickly emerging as one of the most compelling AI investments on the U.S. stock market, fueled by explosive growth in annual recurring revenue, which is projected to approach $1 billion by the end of 2025. With gross margins scaling rapidly and adjusted EBITDA profitability on the horizon, the current environment presents a strong entry point into Nebius’s specialized AI data center solutions.
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Led by Russian-born CEO Arkady Volozh—best known for building Yandex—Nebius has taken meaningful steps to align with Western markets. Volozh has publicly cut ties with the Putin regime, reinforcing the company’s commitment to Western operations and helping ease geopolitical concerns among investors.
In 2019, three years before resigning in protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Volozh led the firm in launching the Yandex Food delivery service.
Earlier, in 2011, he led Yandex’s entry into Western markets through its successful NASDAQ listing. Throughout his career, Volozh has been a driving force behind the company’s adoption of machine learning, playing a key role in shaping its next-generation fintech and AI-driven products.
Now, with Volozh leading NBIS, the stock has risen more than 180% over the past year, after firmly establishing itself as a standout in the AI space, and that momentum appears poised to continue. Goldman Sachs recently slapped a $68 price target on the stock after initiating coverage. Given the confluence of factors, I remain confidently Bullish on NBIS.
NBIS Technical Analysis Indicates Bullish Bias
On the technical analysis front, there is reason to be bullish. According to TipRanks’ chart data, Nebius’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) value is at 60, indicating that the stock is experiencing bullish buying behavior from the market. However, it has not yet reached 70, so it’s not technically overvalued. A 14-day RSI value above 50 can actually be a good sign, even if you’re a value investor. It means sentiment for the stock is positive, which is what you need to drive returns.
Equally, with the stock’s 50-day moving average currently at $43, while the market trades at $53, I see continued bullish momentum as probable, given that macroeconomic indicators are showing stability, inflation concerns are easing, and the Federal Reserve continues to edge towards further interest rate cuts.
However, the key to maintaining strong market sentiment is the company’s ability to deliver profitability sooner rather than later. Even though management expects adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2025, GAAP profitability may not be achieved for years, potentially prolonging the transition from potential to reality for the stable and stalwart nature of the investment. In the interim, some volatility will inevitably be par for the course for NBIS investors.
NBIS Equity Dilution Remains a Big Risk
Nebius currently holds approximately $1.447 billion in total cash and short-term investments. However, with annual operating losses in the hundreds of millions and capital expenditures—primarily for data center infrastructure—ranging between $1–2 billion per year, its cash runway likely extends only about 12 months. This raises the risk of additional financing needs. The company already raised $1 billion in convertible notes in June 2025, and further funding could come in the form of debt or equity, potentially exposing shareholders to dilution.
That said, management’s confidence in achieving adjusted EBITDA breakeven this year could ease some of that pressure. While GAAP losses may persist on paper, positive operating cash flow would significantly help fund ongoing capital expenditures. This would enhance the company’s self-sufficiency and offer a more straightforward and stable path for investors.
NBIS Q2 Earnings Preview
With NBIS’ Q2 earnings results set to be published next week on July 23rd, market participants can expect volatility to spike as speculators take positions going into next week’s figures.
If NBIS reports annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) of around $400 million with gross margins of around 50%, this will strongly support ongoing bullish sentiment. Moreover, the ongoing bullish trend is likely to gather strength, and fresh multi-year highs beyond $55 per share are a real possibility.
Remember, management expects ARR of $750 million to $1 billion by the end of 2025, so over $350 million is certainly necessary in Q2 to maintain the market’s optimistic expectations.
Q2 should also show a narrower adjusted EBITDA loss, proving that management is on track to meet its stated adjusted EBITDA profitability target in the second half of 2025. Earnings reports are always a time when volatility rears its head the most, so even if the long-term trajectory for Nebius remains strong, revenue coming in below consensus would almost certainly spark a temporary sell-off. I would view such an instance as a buying opportunity, not a reason to panic and sell.
Is Nebius a Good Stock to Buy?
On Wall Street, Nebius carries a consensus Strong Buy rating, based on five Buys, zero Holds, and zero Sells. Meanwhile, NBIS’ average stock price target of $66.80 indicates a 25% upside potential over the next 12 months.
Even the low estimate of $47 is only a moderate 11% downside, while the high estimate of $84 indicates an almost 60% growth from current levels. This is an undeniably strong outlook, despite the volatility risks associated with management’s execution of the financial trajectory. But I think shareholders are in good hands with the current CEO.
NBIS Price Action is Dominated by Bullish Sentiment
At this point, I see no compelling reason for existing shareholders to trim their positions in NBIS. The probability of achieving strong annual returns in the 20–30% range appears relatively high. Few sectors currently offer the kind of powerful structural growth that artificial intelligence does, and standout players like Nebius only amplify the appeal.
With Wall Street sentiment broadly Bullish—and my own outlook firmly aligned—this is clearly a time to either buy or hold. Selling now would mean stepping away from one of the most promising opportunities in today’s congested market.