Moderna Stock (MRNA) Faces a Cash Crunch Test as Analyst Day Arrives

Moderna stock heads into Thursday’s analyst day under heavy pressure. Slowing revenue, pipeline setbacks, and a shrinking cash pile now force the company to prove it can reach breakeven before funds run thin.

Moderna (MRNA) steps into Thursday’s analyst day with more pressure than momentum. The stock is down more than 40% this year and over 85% in three years. Revenue is expected to fall another 40% in 2025. And the company’s once-massive cash pile, nearly $20 billion in early 2022, is now projected to land between $6.5 billion and $7 billion by year-end.

Management says that remaining capital is enough to reach breakeven in 2028. Analysts are far less sure. Thursday now doubles as a financial update and a confidence test.

Moderna Tries to Slow a Rapid Cash Drain

The cash burn is the biggest red flag for investors. Covid-19 vaccine sales have collapsed, removing the revenue engine that once carried the company. Moderna has cut costs, but the shrinking balance sheet shows how quickly the post-Covid transition has strained its model.

William Blair analyst Myles Minter made the concern plain. “We still see revenue as needing to roughly double between now and 2028 to maintain breakeven guidance without radically changing the organization.” This kind of growth would require multiple new products performing well, not just one surprise winner.

For now, the numbers force a simpler question: can Moderna make it to 2028 without tapping the market for new cash?

Moderna Battles Weak Product Momentum

The problem is broader than Covid. Moderna’s RSV vaccine has barely contributed to sales. Its cytomegalovirus program was abandoned after a trial failure, and the norovirus program has faced ongoing setbacks. These disappointments have pushed investor focus onto the pipeline rather than current revenue.

Covid’s $18.4 billion peak in 2022 now feels distant. Moderna has not yet found a successor product with anything close to that selling power.

This shift has also changed how the market values the company, not for what it is today, but for what it might become if enough pipeline bets pay off.

Moderna Leans on Its Cancer Pipeline to Reset Expectations

With commercial vaccines underperforming, Moderna now leans heavily on oncology — especially its partnership with Merck (MRK) on mRNA-4157. The program has generated real scientific attention, but timelines are long and outcomes are not guaranteed.

Moderna says Thursday’s analyst day will detail cost cuts, new product plans, and deeper cancer pipeline updates. Investors want clarity on how these programs move the company closer to breakeven, and how soon meaningful revenue can arrive.

Moderna Tries to Calm Fears of a Future Cash Raise

The biggest worry is that failure to execute will force Moderna to raise new capital, diluting shareholders who have already absorbed years of declines.

Moderna must show that 2028 breakeven is still realistic and that the cash on hand is enough to get there. Thursday will reveal whether the company can steady the story or whether doubts continue to build.

Is MRNA a Good Stock to Buy?

Wall Street’s view on Moderna stock remains firmly neutral. Based on 20 analyst ratings over the past three months, the consensus lands at a Hold, based on a mix of three Buys, 13 Holds, and four Sells. The split shows how divided analysts are on Moderna’s ability to regain momentum while its cash burn and pipeline uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment.

The average 12-month MRNA price target sits at $39.75, implying a 64.39% upside from the most recent price.

See more MRNA analyst ratings