Pharma giant Moderna (MRNA) is set to release its Q4 2024 results on February 14. MRNA stock has lost about 64% over the past year, due to fading vaccine demand and pipeline uncertainty. Uncertainty looms as Wall Street analysts project a loss of $2.68 per share, compared to a profit of $0.55 per share in the same quarter last year. Declining revenue and continued R&D investments are expected to weigh on the bottom line.
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Also, revenues are expected to decrease by 66% from the same quarter last year, reaching $942.8 million, according to data from the TipRanks Forecast page. Notably, Moderna missed EPS estimates only twice out of the last nine quarters.
Analysts’ Views on MRNA Ahead of Q4 Results
Ahead of Moderna’s Q4 results, most of the analysts have lowered their price targets, citing weak vaccine demand.
One such analyst is Tim Anderson of BofA, who lowered the firm’s price target to $34 from $41 and kept an Underperform rating on the stock. For Q4, the firm lowered the revenue estimate by 16% due to weaker sales expectations and adjusted EPS accordingly. Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 were also reduced by 18% and 15%, respectively.
Also, Goldman Sachs recently added to the bearish outlook on Moderna, downgrading the stock to Hold and cutting its price target from $99 to $51, citing continued revenue guidance reductions and uncertainty around respiratory vaccine revenue.
Meanwhile, Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Courtney Breen also trimmed Moderna’s price target to $45 from $55 while maintaining a Market Perform rating.
Options Traders Anticipate a 9.76% Move
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting a 9.76% move in either direction.
Is MRNA Stock a Buy?
The stock of Moderna has a consensus Hold rating among 16 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on two Buy, 10 Hold, and four Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average MRNA price target of $48.50 implies 58.83% upside from current levels.
