Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev has set a new Street-low price target of $70 on Circle Internet Group (CRCL), following a study of more than 750 initial public offerings (IPOs) over the past 20 years. Dolev maintained his “Sell” rating, while lowering the price target from $85 to $70, implying 15% downside potential.
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According to Dolev, Circle stock has not yet reached its bottom. Historical patterns indicate further weakness ahead, influenced by factors such as declining interest rates, growing competition among stablecoins, and rising distribution costs. Circle is the largest issuer of the USDC stablecoin, second only to Tether in the global stablecoin market.
Why Dolev Thinks Circle Will Fall to $70
Dolev’s bearish outlook stems from his analysis of more than 750 newly listed companies over two decades. Although CRCL stock has already declined nearly 41% in the past three months, he sees additional downside ahead. His lower price target is primarily based on two factors.
1. Elevated Risk from Lockup Period Expiration
Dolev’s research found that 58 percent of newly listed companies that outperformed the S&P 500 before their lockup expiration later underperformed the index by an average of 2 percent within 180 days after the period ended. He noted that although Circle’s stock has dropped recently, it still outperforms the S&P 500 significantly. Since its IPO on June 5, 2025, CRCL shares have gained more than 200%, compared to the S&P 500.
2. Revenue Miss Deepens Downside Pressure
Dolev believes that Circle’s revenue expectations for fiscal 2027 are too optimistic. His own estimates fall well below consensus expectations. Based on his study, companies that miss revenue targets within a year of their IPO tend to underperform the market by about 10 percent. He expects analysts to lower revenue projections for Circle over the coming years due to declining interest rates, slower-than-expected growth of USDC, and increasing distribution costs.
Dolev’s Valuation and $70 Target
Dolev pointed out that Circle’s peers, including Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD), currently trade at an average of about 22 times their 2027 consensus EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
However, because Circle’s business relies heavily on a single macro factor, interest rates, and may experience slower growth in USDC circulation than expected, Dolev applied a slightly lower multiple of around 21 times to his below-consensus 2027 EBITDA estimate, resulting in a $70 price target.
Is Circle a Good Stock to Buy?
Analysts remain divided on Circle’s long-term outlook. On TipRanks, CRCL stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 10 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell rating. The average Circle price target of $154.62 implies 87.8% upside potential from current levels.
