Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered his price target for Tesla (TSLA) stock to $475 from $485, but reiterated a Buy rating on the electric vehicle (EV) maker. The 5-star analyst cited potential headwinds in the battery electric vehicle (BEV) space in 2026, mainly related to EV subsidies in key markets.
TipRanks Black Friday Sale
- Claim 60% off TipRanks Premium for the data-backed insights and research tools you need to invest with confidence.
- Subscribe to TipRanks' Smart Investor Picks and see our data in action through our high-performing model portfolio - now also 60% off
Tesla stock has risen by just 3% year-to-date. While TSLA Bulls are optimistic about the opportunities beyond EVs, such as robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots, other analysts are concerned about the impact of intense competition in the EV market and margin woes.
Mizuho Stays Bullish on TSLA Stock Despite Near-Term Headwinds
Rakesh expects the recent expiration of EV subsidies in the U.S. to impact Tesla’s U.S. business, which accounted for about 37% of the company’s overall Q3 sales. Moreover, he anticipates the 50% EV subsidy cut in China, which accounted for 34% of TSLA’s Q3 sales, to weigh on its performance.
Based on these challenges, Rakesh now expects Tesla’s 2026 and 2027 EV deliveries to come in at 1.75 million and 2 million, respectively, slightly below the Street’s expectations of 1.82 million and 2.15 million.
Despite near-term challenges, Rakesh remains bullish on Tesla’s growth potential. The analyst cited several long-term growth drivers, including the adoption of full self-driving (FSD) v14 for autonomous vehicles, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots.
Is Tesla Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Given the challenges in the EV market and intense competition, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Tesla stock based on 14 Buys, 10 Holds, and 10 Sell recommendations. The average TSLA stock price target of $383.04 indicates 8.1% downside risk.
