Micron (MU) heads into its fourth-quarter report with momentum. The company already raised guidance in August, a move that told investors demand for its highest-value memory is running ahead of plan. Consensus now calls for adjusted earnings of $2.86 a share on revenue of $11.2 billion. This would be a big jump from a year ago and it reflects how quickly AI data centers are soaking up advanced DRAM and HBM.
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What really matters here is memory. This is because memory has always been a feast-or-famine business. In past cycles, strong quarters were followed by gluts, falling prices, and painful resets. This time looks different so far. AI buyers are still building and filling data centers, and they want premium parts that carry better margins. Micron has leaned into that mix and investors want to see proof that supply is tight and pricing is firm.
Wall Street Lifts the Bar
Analysts have been racing to keep up with the stock. Price targets moved higher again last week as checks pointed to better demand from cloud customers. TD Cowen’s Krish Sankar said his work suggests memory prices should keep rising into the next few quarters. That is not typical this deep into an upcycle, and it signals demand is outstripping supply.
The market has noticed. Shares climbed sharply through September, and the average target has drifted up with them. When a stock runs into earnings, the bar rises with it. This puts more pressure on Micron to not only beat the quarter but also raise the outlook for the year ahead.
Why AI Demand Is Giving Micron a New Kind of Growth
AI training clusters need stacks of high-bandwidth memory next to the accelerator. This design change altered the demand curve for memory suppliers. Instead of relying on PCs and phones, Micron now ships a larger portion of bits into data centers that value bandwidth and power efficiency over cost alone. The revenue mix shifts up and the pricing discipline strengthens.
Investors want to know if this new mix can blunt the old cycle. If AI keeps growing, it can offset softer demand in consumer devices and industrial markets. The past two years have already looked different from prior peaks. Inventory stayed leaner, prices held longer, and buyers signed forward agreements to lock in supply. If this pattern holds, Micron’s earnings power could prove more durable than the market is used to.
Pricing Strength Extends
Rising spot and contract prices remain the key tell. Reports through September pointed to tight supply in DRAM and improving trends in NAND, with HBM still the star. This backdrop explains why Micron felt confident enough to lift guidance in August, only weeks before quarter end. Lifting guidance that late usually means the quarter locked in better than expected.
What matters tonight is confirmation. Investors will parse average selling prices, bit shipments, and gross margin. Any sign that HBM ramps are on schedule and yields are improving should support the thesis that pricing power lasts into 2026. The reverse is also true. If pricing cools or costs run hotter than planned, the stock could give back recent gains.
What Investors Should Watch Next
Once the numbers hit, attention should shift to the first-quarter outlook. Street models are looking for about $11.9 billion of revenue, up more than a third from last year. The question is whether Micron guides above that. Comments on capacity additions, customer visibility, and HBM supply will set the tone. Clarity on capex and node transitions will also matter because investors want assurance Micron can meet demand without overshooting.
There is also the competitive angle. If management signals that supply from peers will stay disciplined and that long-term agreements with cloud providers are expanding, the market will read that as support for margins. If management sounds cautious on non-AI end markets, investors will ask whether AI can keep carrying the load alone. The balance of those signals will drive the post-print move.
Key Takeaway
Micron arrives with the wind at its back. Guidance already moved higher, pricing checks look firm, and Wall Street expects another beat. The stock’s run into the print raises the stakes, so the outlook needs to confirm that the AI memory boom still has legs. If Micron shows that demand, pricing, and margins remain tight, the story stays intact. If not, a hot September could cool in a hurry.
Is Micron Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to TipRanks, analysts are firmly behind Micron. Out of 29 Wall Street analysts tracked in the past three months, 25 rate the stock a Buy, four call it a Hold, and none are recommending a Sell. This kind of split puts Micron squarely in “Strong Buy” territory.
The average 12-month MU price target is $166.75, only a touch above where the stock trades today.
